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Rope-a-McDope


Back in the doom-and-gloom days of...um...last week, there were a number of stalwart cheerleaders at TPM Cafe who airily assured us that Obama had everything under control. While I wasn't particularly concerned about the polls--I've seen enough elections not to get my knickers in a twist over weekly fluctuations--I had the sense that at least some of those cheerleaders would insist that all was well up to the moment of crushing defeat. The knowing assurances that Obama's hesitance to attack was part of his rope-a-dope strategy seemed the most suspect. I understand how rope-a-dope pertains to be boxing, but elections? Did these people expect McCain to wear himself out from too many negative attacks. Did they think the Republicans would run out of smears? What exactly was to be gained by holding back early and attacking later?

I've changed my mind. Whether by design or fortune, Obama gained by delaying retaliation. For one thing, McCain's attack ads, from Paris Hilton to kindergarten sex ed, have not been very effective. On July 30th, the day the celebrity ad came out, Obama led McCain in Real Clear Politic's aggregated polls 47/44. Today, Obama leads 52/48. More tellingly, Obama's favorable/unfavorable ratings haven't moved more than a couple of points since July, suggesting that the wild poll swings have had more to do with the conventions and Sarah Palin than McCain's attacks.

That's the rope part. What about the dope? The McCain campaign has obviously not run out of smears, but in running a series of dirty attack ads, they have squandered a valuable asset--moral high ground. At the beginning of the campaign, the two candidates were presented my the media as two honorable guys who run would clean, substantive campaigns. No longer. While Obama has lost some credibility in the mudslinging, it is McCain who has emerged as the bad guy in this fight, as previously fawning journalists have come down hard on his lies. Regardless of how this narrative translates into polls, it offers a clear strategic victory to the Obama campaign. McCain will now face more scrutiny from the press, he will have more trouble convincing voters that he represents a change from politics as usual, and in a mud-fight, he will be more likely to be seen as the instigator. Obama, on the other hand, now has a free hand to attack McCain without risk of tainting his own message of change. Had he attacked harder, earlier, and dirtier, the media would have been far more likely to declare both candidates equally tainted.

I'm not sure whether Obama intentionally suckered McCain into sacrificing his once vaunted credibility or whether he just got lucky, but it's worth noting that this is not the first time that Obama has managed to present himself as the sweet-natured hero reluctantly retaliating against a devious, Machiavellian villain.

And to the cheerleaders, if this is what you meant by rope-a-dope (be honest), kudos to you.

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Rope-a-dope is a poor analogy for the situation. Its popularity is rather due to amusing wording than verisimilitude.

Your description of the situation is apt.

Chess > throwing rocks.

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If I may quote wiki-p:

Rope-a-dope is also commonly used to describe strategies in areas other than boxing, where one party purposely puts itself in what appears to be a losing position, and then becomes the eventual victor.

Of course, it's only apt if the strategy was purposeful.

You are begging the question :)

People certainly call all kinds of things "rope-a-dope," but this in and of itself does not mean that the analogy is correct.

Frankly, with the quality of people these days, it is often a safe bet to go with the opposite.

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I would just like to point out that after getting into an argument with someone about it on another forum (the other person was the one being the pedant), this is the first time I've seen the phrase "begging the question" used in its supposedly "correct" usage, as opposed to meaning "raising another question" as it usually is.

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Thanks for the explanation; I never thought to look it up. I always thought it had to do with that soap that you can hang on the shower thingy and it never made any sense. (Imagining McCain in the shower was too painful by far!)

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I would say that Obama is playing GO while McCain is playing Chess...


In go, you can put a piece on the board that only makes sense 50 moves later. Most chess games are over within 50 moves.

I commented in february that I saw evidence that Obama would be the best go player of all the candidates. At the time he seemed to be playing a large Moyo game. Now I am sure he would be at least a dan level player.
McCain has played alot of Aji-Keshi and Obama has built thickness from which future attacks will be powerful.
I suspect we will see Obama launch a combination of a few light probing attacks, and some strategically devastating attacks. I don't expect McCain to understand the difference, which will be very costly for him.
I think the only way for McCain to win now is to have a sneeze-event (Palin was an attempted sneeze) which messes up the board and hope Obama is unable to put the pieces back correctly.

SORRY ABOUT THIS BUT since I can't get TPM to do an original post I'm gonna put this here because:
IN YOU WILDEST DREAM YOU WILL NOT BELIEVE WHAT JOHN MCCAIN SAID IN the Sept./Oct. 2008 issue of Contingencies, the magazine of the American Academy of Actuaries.
You might want to be seated before reading this.

Here’s what McCain has to say about the wonders of market-based health reform:

Opening up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition, as we have done over the last decade in banking, would provide more choices of innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation.
So McCain, who now poses as the scourge of Wall Street, was praising financial deregulation like 10 seconds ago — and promising that if we marketize health care, it will perform as well as the financial industry! THANK YOU PAUL KRUGMAN!
look HERE:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/19/mccain-on-banking-and-health/

"The McCain campaign has obviously not run out of smears, but in running a series of dirty attack ads, they have squandered a valuable asset--moral high ground."

I think they have run out of smears. They just launched too many, too early, and had too many that were easily debunked.

Most importantly, the PO'd the press.

Fatal mistake. Seems like every smear they attempt now is debunked in the same article reporting it.

He didn't have a choice, though - McBush knew that he isn't going to win this election before their convention, IMO. He's giving it the best shot Rove can give him. They just went to the well once too often.

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Do you know what the original rope-a-dope was? It's quite a good analogy. Obama took a lot of shots without hitting back until he saw his opening and is now going for the knock-out.

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"purposeful"? You mean, like, dliberate? Consciously intended?

I think it has more to do with character, and a cool head, which Obama has shown in instances which would hae driven me up the wall, and across the ceiling, if not through it.

I agree. I was one of the cheerleaders last week, but won't take credit for using the rope-a-dope strategy as the reason for my confidence. I just believe that Obama has nerves of steel and can take numerous punches without falling down. For me, it's like watching Michael Phelps in the Olympics. There were moments you thought, there is no way he can pull this one off, and then he did. After the 5th or 6th medal, I stopped getting nervous for him. I knew he would win. There are few people who can inspire such confidence or trust in their innate inner strength. I think Obama is one. He's cool because he is calm. He doesn't exhaust himself with cynicism and lying. When you are constantly lying and under the control of other people, you start getting edgy, punch drunk, disoriented, and you start swinging at nothing.

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Telling the truth and sticking to principles of dignity. I guess it's like rocket-science to some, but it seems to come easy to Obama.

And if it's a sports analogy we need, I've always thought basketball is Obama's game. He's got game, great fundamentals, found a good team, knows the court, doesn't foul out, watches for openings, knows exactly where the basket is, and then... swish.

Like it had eyes!

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I think that if you look at the financial side of things though there is a case to be made for the analogy. McCain had to burn 100% of his privately raised money before he accepted the nomination before he begins using his public money; so the Obama camp knew for certain that there would be a flurry of ads coming at them and they could either burn their own money fighting back one everything just as hard; or they could play good defense for a couple weeks don't let any of the hit stick too hard and come back afterward with their own offensive bombardment.

Of course I doubt that even the Obama camp could have predicted that McCain would have extended himself so far over the truth line and thus loosing his standing with the MSM referees; but from a financial perspective the analogy is at least partially applicable.

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I heard somewhere that McCain could donate all of his left-over $$ to the RNC, which can then use it on his behalf. I don't know if it is true, but if it is, then what is the point?

I agree that it was partly purposeful.
I think one of Obama's best qualities as a politician is, to use another boxing metaphor, his amazing ability to pull a punch--that is to not take the cheap shot, even when the opening is right in front of you.

For example, when Hillary cried way back when, they asked Edwards and Obama about it. Edwards snapped, rather eagerly, "Well the commander and chief has to be strong" or something like that, and came across as a total ass. Obama, on the other hand said, "I'm not going to comment on that. This primary has been exhausting and difficult for all of us." And he came across as a classy guy.

And I do think the rope-a-dope analogy is apt. I'm not a boxing fan, but I did finally see the Forman/Ali fight where that term was made famous and I definitely see the parallel. McCain has taken every cheap shot he could, whether true or not, and in the process he's exhausted his huge reserve of good will in the media and the mind of the public, and he's squandered his presumption of honorable and honest behavior. But the attacks barely made a dent in Obama's approval and the media and blogs and factcheckers absorbed this hits for him and sapped the sting from McCain's lies. In fact, of late, McCain really seems confused and exhuasted himself. Now Obama rises off the ropes, full of vigor, with his reputation intact (and even strengthened), and with a few direct and perfectly delivered jabs, he (God willing) knocks McCain flat on his back.

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The illiteracy about the very basics is worse than annoying: it is alarming -- especially in the "superior":

It is Commander IN Chief.

Actually, this is what I meant when I was agreeing with the rope-a-dope crowd. (Well, I like to think of it as Obama's Tao of Bugs Bunny.) If he stood still long enough (not too long, but long enough), he could allow the weakness of McCain's campaign to damage itself.

I'm sure this stuff will be well-analyzed after the election is over. It'll be interesting to chew over.

O decided to go on the offensive when people were PAYING ATTENTION. McCain put all his pigs in one basket all the way in august. THAT is mastery.

I've long believed that the three meta-themes of this campaign are (1) Change vs. More of the Same; (2) Future vs. Past; and (3) Calmness vs. Recklessness. This rope-a-dope discussion hits on the third theme, and I'd like to see more of it make its way into the campaign's bloodstream. I thought Obama introduced it in his convention speech when he dropped the word "temperament," but we haven't heard much since. In terms of character and personality, however, it is readily apparent that Obama is one level-headed guy. Nothing seems to ruffle him; he remains cool as a cucumber while his opponents look panicky, overly aggressive, and eventually, downright nasty. This comparison is especially salient when the foil is John McCain, and his reckless VP pick -- entrusting his campaign and his country to a person he met exactly once -- is perfect ammo. I hope this temperamental difference gets some play in the final weeks of the campaign, and comes through in the debates.

This is exactly what I said was going on last week. Or its what I would have said last week, if I had said it.

I maintained my good cheer this past few weeks, not so much out of a belief that our guy was intentionally letting McCain dig himself a hole or wear himself out, but because it seemed pretty clear that even while the post-convention and post-Palin bounce were still playing themselves out McCain was squandering moral capital. And from the minute Palin came to light we all knew that the vetting was going to turn up some squirmy stuff. And so it has.

It's not over, and a day's like a lifetime right now, so hold onto your ass, it's going to be a wild ride. The question is, are you going to sit your saddle with one hand in the air, or are you going to cling to the horse's back? I, for one, intend to enjoy the ride as much as I can.

This week's books: Taking On the System and X Saves the World; next week, The Political Mind: Why You Can't Understand 21st Century Politics with an 18th Century Brain.

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Did these people expect McCain to wear himself out from too many negative attacks. Did they think the Republicans would run out of smears?

I expected the public would be revulsed by McCain and Palin's lies and smears. Nobody expected McCain's base the media to lead the way.

I have allowed myself a brief exhale. Call it what you will, Obama's campaign seems to have regained its footing, helped along by McCain's dishonest attacks and an assist (if you can call it that) from the financial crisis. Only the most ardent Obamaphile could possibly say that falling behind was an intentional strategy. To his credit, Obama seems to have basically stuck to his strategy, perhaps sharpening his attacks some and focusing more on the economy. While some of us here are focused on the short term, we should also accept that this is part of the ups and downs of a campaign. I anticipate more angst and I'm not ready to bet the proverbial farm. (Flatbush Farm, that is.)

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I certainly wasn't suggesting that falling behind in the polls was intentional. Nor do I attribute Obama's recent upswing to a successful "rope-a-dope" strategy.

What may have been intentional was a muted response to McCain's attacks. Starting with celebrity, many bloggers demanded an aggressive response from the Obama campaign, but the campaign ran only limited counterattacks, and most of those were local ads with little fanfare.

As it turns out, an aggressive response was unnecessary. Despite the teeth-gnashing, the celebrity ads and other attacks did little damage. McCain, like Clinton, is still struggling to find an angle an Obama. Meanwhile, his aggressive attempts have made him look like the dirty one. The chief consequence of this is not in the polls but rather in a loss of credibility that will probably dog him the rest of the campaign.

PS I prefer the Farm on Adderley.

rope a dope is an excellent analogy, because in a political campaign it is a series of blows struck in a contest of wills and strength. And in several instances already, when Obama showed restraint and appeared unaggressive, he not only encouraged McCain to overreach in his negative ads and rhetoric, but he also scared every chicken little supporter in the blogosphere who feared he was not goingto hold up. As a result of McCain's overreaching we have the ridiculous 'Lipstickgate', the scads of ads where McCain frankly lies about Obama, and Obama didn't start punching back until the mood had changed in the media and until they were all primed with their own doubts about McCain, which is when Obama came out hitting hard. He also struck at a time in which it was most suitable to strike, when he was the underdog in the polls and when McCain was most likely to be perceived as attacking unfairly. That is rope-a-dope in politics.

I like the way you've said this. Just think what these skills will mean when governing. Breathtaking after the past 8 years, just breathtaking.

Louisev: Your comment is premised on two points with which I must respectfully disagree. First, you seem to suggest that Obama somehow encouraged McCain to overreach. I just don't believe this could be true (of course, we're both just guessing; I wouldn't presume to know the answer nor should you). Do you think Axelrod is sitting around in strategy sessions saying, "I know we're behind, but I think McCain is about to overreach, the media will pick up on it, then we see our opportunity and, with the media back on our side, when we're the underdog, and then, pounce." That seems like imposing an explanation on events that likely occurred organically. Second, you also suggest that the strength we're seeing now is a result of McCain's overreaching. While the media appears to have finally begun falling out of love with McCain, I don't see that as the the main reason Obama has begun to regain his position. Check my comment above, I believe it is due to a combination of factors including (1) the fade of McCain's post convention bounce, (2) Palin failing to survive a closer look, (3) the financial meltdown and Obama focusing more on economic issues, (4) closer scrutiny being applied to McCain, and (5) who the hell knows, but I'm not looking a gift horse in the mouth.

And call me a chicken little, but I believe there will be more swings to come.

Never doubted Obama for a moment. I know better. :-)

I think us wimmens have more smarts than the menfolks when it comes to chicken littleitis.

It's more like Jiu-Jitsu or Aikido - the energy of the enemy's attack is used against him and he finds himself on his back with your arm crushing his (metaphorical) windpipe.

That would be the "I'm rubber, you're glue" strategy...

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I'm thinking of the counter where you grab your opponent's hand and start to slap him with it. The faster he backpedals to avoid the attack, the faster it moves. With the right timing, you can make someone stumble backwards clear across the room (helps if they are drunk at the time, trust me).

Obama managed to get McCain to bitch-slap himself (Sarah Palin reference not intended).


Having watched Obama come out of these situations over and over and over again, I suspected he would do it again. Consider that Palin was from out of left field. Although I suspect they weren't caught completely by surprise, they realized that they had limited options against the Palin effect early on.

The public infatuation made it difficult to effectively neutralize her. I'm sure the Obama campaign was aware of how McCain's base was turning on him for this cynical pick. So they laid back for a week and let the press do their thing.

Obama has 'weapons' that he purposefully keeps sheathed away from view. No one (the public or McCain) knows the full extent of his arsenal. We get to see what he wants us to see on a "need to know" basis.

Remember he said that he may not punch first, but he'll punch last.

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"The public infatuation . . . ."

Gad, I hate mediaese --

It was not "infatuation". It was simply curiosity about an unknown. And, initially, lame comments about her being "attractive" -- she is not -- and "pretty" -- she is not -- and "charismatic" -- she is not.

It was simply throwing words out in order to say something -- "whatever" would have had as much relevance.

See my comment in response to this thread below on September 10, 2008 10:28 AM

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/09/obama-has-timed-this-perfectly.php


Nice post.

I agree about the timing. I think Obama has been holding off a little on his spending and waiting for McCain's spending limit to kick in.

If you think about it, McCain's campaign is demonstrating real desperation with their very negative attacks, obvious lies, stealing slogans, crazy mufucka VP selection.

In stark contrast Obama's campaign has shown restraint, grace and a kinda grown-up-ness. And even after all that AND after the Republican convention bounce its still only about even.

Don't y'all see. McCain's campaign has lost its form. Its raggedy and crazy lookin. Obama is looking professional and poised. This gives him so much to work with in the final weeks.

Believe me I feel the pain of watching our guy getting knocked around. I've wanted him to punch back, but I honestly think he wants to win this thing the way he set out to, with truth on his side. I honestly believe he HAS been playing political rope-a-dope.

I ask you, who is in a strong position now? Who has more credibility with the people and the media coming in to the final stretch?


As Mr. Colbert would say - I accept your apology!

;-)

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"Rope-a-dope"? No. Choosing his battles. Anxiety provokes responses to every attack. Calm reflection ignores those it can.

My biggest fear last week was that, once again, a slim majority of my fellow Americans were going to be easily bamboozled.

Obama is strong, skilled, a master at rope-a-McDope and barackarate! That, plus the possibility that people are noting that McCain and Palin are unprincipled liars who stick with a negative campaign and give no real ideas to fix things, gives me enough hope to stay relatively stress-free.

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Judo or jujitsu.

I can HONESTLY say I was saying this ever since Dem's really started panicking. The only time I ever really worried was when it seemed like the idiots were really coming out of the woodworks and DEMOCRATS were choosing themselves over their party. Other than that I kept saying stop worrying O knows what he is doing and when people are actually paying attention O will do what needs to be done.

Once Karl Rove's minions took over McCain's campaign, it was pretty clear that they would go after Obama's strength, and lie repeatedly, because history had taught them they could get away with it. Obama's muted responses led them to believe he would be another Kerry. A classic rope-a-dope.

But it appears that Axelrod set them up. Schmidt thought he could get away with a VP pick who's entire speech, and entire life, was a lie, and it has backfired big time. Now, McCain is stuck with the long list of lies his campaign is built on, from "Obama will raise your taxes" to "I said thanks but no thanks to the bridge to nowhere." It took the RNC convention and its all out attack on the media around Palin to get the MSM to start questioning the lies. But once reporters and editors realized they were being used, they finally stood up and started to do their jobs.

The Palin pregnancy thing was a total trap to try to make any questions reporters asked about her look like MSM liberal piling on. But once they started to question her background, the lies became so obvious, even low information voters noticed. Last weekend, the polls began to shift, as voters realized she was none of the things she claimed to be. The economy just turned it into an earthquake.

Now, the theme is set. The once honorable McCain will say or do anything to win, from lie to prop up a totally unqualified cute woman. He dug his own hole. Now lets see if the Dems can bury him in it.

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She is not "cute". She is yet another brass-knuckled below-the-belt thug.

Simply put, I'm happy that the press scrutiny materialized at all. That will help in the as we get closer to the election. Also, McCain, by not vetting Palin closely, did himself no favors.

While I agree with most of what Mr. Genghis says, the one clear error, and it is a big one, is that the McCain/Rove Team has run out of mud.

I can virtually guarantee that three days before the election, we will see a whole repeat of the endless loop of Rev. Wright. Schmidt and Co. have made it very clear that they are planning to use this "nu-clear" option when the time is right. And the Wright thing plays exactly on the fears of older voters and white working class voters. Obama will be prepared, but he tends to get wordy when what is needed is a visceral response.

Fighter pilots aren't chosen for their calm considered approach to handling crisis. They are tactical masters unencumbered by strategic concerns. They act because, in their world there is no time to think.

Boxing is a game that matches one opponent's strategic ability directly against another. The tactical slugger is always at a huge pound-for-pound disadvantage. Forman had no chance and the fight wasn't as close as it looked.

Rope-A-Dope is a good analogy, as is the game GO. Being President requires the strategic intellect of a GO master, not that of a Bar-Room Brawler.

Not really rope-a-dope. More like Risk.

Rope-a-dope was Ali's historic strategy to let Foreman just beat the hell out of him, landing effective punches to the mid-section, but protecting the head. Then, when the future master of grilling appliances tired from flinging his fattish hobbitses body around, Ali goes in for the kill.

I like to think Obama is playing Risk. While McCain made incursions into such goofy and unprotectable areas like Ukraine and the Middle East--where he set himself up to be attacked from all sides--and spread his armies thin after each "successful" battle, Obama just did what any smart player of Risk does: reap the reward from controlling seemingly inconsequential but easily defendable Australia and South America, build up armies in New Guinea, Brazil, and Central America, and then, when his opponent is crowing and spread out very widely, but very thinly--then you make your move.

John McCain is growing closer to the point like my childhood buddy Mike, whose temper would get the best of him when he saw he was losing and losing badly and just flip the board and go home.

I don't know if I'm totally sold on Rope-a-Dope as a deliberate strategy, I'm more with JNagarya in thinking it's a matter of temperament. McCain's bump was artificial due to initial excitement with Palin, the RNC, and possibly a little Georgia tossed in.

The test of whether Obama's bump back is an artificial reflection of the bad economy or something more enduring will come with the debates. The first one is in 6 days, covering foreign policy -- it might be a game-changer. That's when most voters will start to pay a little attention. I'm optimistic, but there's still no room for overconfidence.

One more thing, Rove is still out there. Anyone who bought his Mac went too far is dreaming, he will just teach him better & more evil ways to lie.

Optimistically a lttle more hopeful, it's better to be up than down.

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