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Telltale Signs That North Carolina Really Is In Play


North Carolina Democrats are fired up about Barack Obama, their candidate for President of the United States.  Volunteers are in over abundance and monetary contributions are flowing like the Nile River.  Add to that a growing number of Obama/Biden bumper stickers and yard signs which unlike in previous years outnumber those of the GOP candidates.  Extra telling is the comment sections of the editorial pages of leading NC newspapers like the Charlotte Observer where Obama supporters are active participants.  Negative or distorted comments posted by GOP supporters or surrogates are quickly rebuffed.

Another very prominent sign that NC is in play is the attention being paid to NC by the Obama Campaign. Last Sunday Joe Biden and his wife Jill visited Charlotte.  Michelle Obama visited on Thursday and Barack himself will be in Charlotte tomorrow on Sunday.  Judging by the buzz that I am hearing, I expect the turnout for Obama to be huge. The turnout and the energy his appearance will generate will fire up supporters even more for the stretch run and attract the few voters left who may be still undecided. 

If you need more proof, just listen to the chatter coming from the GOP and faux Democrats.  Former Hillary Clinton supporter, Mark Erwin is quick to suggest that it is futile for Obama to expend resources in NC because it's not likely that the so-called solid red state will turn blue.  It's obvious that much like his GOP pals, Erwin wasn't listening when Obama said "it's not red or blue states, but the United States."   Also, he apparently discounted a recent poll of likely NC voters that showed John McCain with only a one point lead over Obama.  That will spell big trouble for the GOP, because of the revised composition of likely voters that include a 3 to 1 Democratic advantage of new registrants and a large number of difficult to canvass young voters that favor the candidacy of Barack Obama.  Indeed, NC is very much in play.

Need more signs?  Prominent GOP candidates like Pat McCrory who is running for governor and Liz Dole up for re-election to the U.S. Senate seem to be running as Independents.  Liz Dole didn't even attend the GOP Convention.  Who's a Republican?  There is little mention of John McCain and with her star now losing its luster, few of them are climbing on the Sarah Palin bandwagon.  Privately Republicans must be incensed with McCain that Palin was not properly vetted.  With almost a scandal a day, voters have to be  questioning the judgment and decision-making capacity of McCain due to his choice of a running mate.  The selection of Joe Biden by Obama was a home run.  But does anyone who understands the importance of "Country First" really believe that McCain put country first with his selection of Palin who could be a heartbeat away from being Commander in Chief. 

Well, all those examples validate NC as a battleground state, but the biggest indicator is it appears that most NC voters are not of the stupid variety and have discerned that the country desperately needs positive change. I have attended large and small Obama events and there is widespread support for Obama from the electorate.  Those supposedly white, bitter, disenfranchised voters don't reside here.  You may recall it was Obama's NC primary victory that helped him get his mojo back. Much like it is with Iowa, NC and Obama are joined at the hip.  So despite this being the silly season of politics, Obama has statewide support in the Coastal Plains, the Piedmont and the Mountain regions of the Old North State. Yep, telltale signs suggest that the debilitating American Gridlock will get a long overdue positive change injection on November 5 and NC most certainly will line up on the right side of history.


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TPM, please delete the 12:58 a.m. post.

I think that the Obama campaign has been very smart to run in 'every state' because really 'any and every' state could go to Obama... okay maybe not Kentucky... some states are probably out of reach but I think even some of the states that are being considered solid for the republicans could still go to the democrats. I also think we should work to have a strong popular vote majority throughout the country as well as a 'voter suppression/fraud' margin proof victory in every state possible. Every vote counts and I don't think we should give up on any state.

Democrats in red states we need your votes too.

Please verify your registration before the registration deadlines even if you have been voting for a long time!!

The Popular Vote will come into play if there's another "tie" where Obama "loses" like in 2000 because of voter suppression and state stealing. They stole FLA and they stole OH in 2004. These are facts. If they try it again, we shut the whole f#cking thing down.

Cause a Constitutional Crisis and insist that the Popular Vote over rule the electoral college. Yes, it's that important. No, we can't stop.

We're playing for keeps!!

lbrillante: Just so I'm clear, I'm totally agreeing with you and I loved your post! :) [I was angry in my last post because I think the GOP just killed capitalism this week, and I'm wicked pissed.]

Keep up the great work lbrillante!!

Most certainly, Democrats need to be watching the polls like hawks. The GOP tend to move around with their trickery i.e. Florida then Ohio.

Turn out is going to be key, the amount of young voters and AA voters that don't normally turn out in NC will make the difference.

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AA voters? So my state has a substantial number of recovering alcoholic voters?

Hell yeah, and they go for Obama 80-20 because they believe that them changing from being drunkards to sober upstanding individuals isn't the only change they need.

I know this is snark, but I actually stopped being a Republican about 2 weeks after I stopped drinking. Coincidence?

Goldspinner - come on, your smartass comment isn't funny or appropriate

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John Nail,

Hey, I call out racists when I see 'em. Don't call me a damn "AA" and expect me to ignore it.

"Hey, I call out racists when I see 'em. Don't call me a damn "AA" and expect me to ignore it."

What does "racist" and "AA" have in common other than to prove you are clueless?

Perhaps you should become a friend of Bill W.?

Apologize - No racism intended - the polling sites et al are using AA as short hand for African American in their discussion and that is how we used it here

Was I being called a racist?? That would be funny if so, with me sitting here beside a Obama poster.(the CHANGE one that was sold on Obama's website)

Totally (or mostly) OT but am I the only person that bristles at the term African-American? Last I looked the blacks in this country are American -period and have as much connection to Africa as I do to Holland. (Less, in fact, since many in my family lived in Holland just 3 generations ago.) And, frankly -- EXCEPT for social reaction to their skin color - they have less and less connection with one another. Our black population is rapidly becoming as diverse - culturally, financially, and by all other criteria -- as our population in general.

That's why I most often use the now PC-incorrect (I'm told) term 'blacks' -- which is also factually incorrect but does at least refer to the only thing that is real in this dichotmy between Aftrican-Americans and the rest of us Americans: skin color. And, when you think about it, skin color doesn't make much of a difference at all. (To take it to the ridiculous extreme, am I different when I have a sun burn?)

I truly have no wish to offend but find myself offended on behalf of people who are as American as I am but who get "hyphenated" like their Americanism has to be ... well ... segregated. (To use a really bad term.) I'm not a female-American, or Christian-American, or Southern-American, or Dutch-American. I'm an American, of a certain gender, who has a certain religion, was raised in a certain part of the country, and whose ancestors came from a certain other country. How come I get to be simply an "American" with no qualifiers and my dark-skinned neighbor does not?

Goldspinner, you have a great deal more standing to speak on this issue than I do and I'd love to know your thoughts.

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So it's changed again? The term was "black" in the 60's, but the change to African-American did not come from white folks. I never liked it very much; seemed kind of silly to refer to people from the West Indies, for example, as African-Americans!

Hey, I only learned what "bling" was about 2 years after it came about. I'll call anyone what they tell me they want to be called, but don't blame me or anyone else for not knowing that it has changed again. Hopefully it won't go back to Negro, but I'm open to anything.

I grew up in the sixties and used "Black" as it was the choice of the blacks back then; Black Power, etc. Now I find myself alternating between both African American and Black. I guess I say Black more often as it feels most natural when I am required to talk about a particular constituency but otherwise, I don't generally refer to a person by color at all.

Nobody has ever told me that "Black" is insulting or derogatory. I'm fine with calling myself "White" but would find "East European American" (Hungarian) cumbersome.

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Other indication of NC in play in the PPP poll that just came out.


Interesting thing to note in the crosstabs on the latest Public Policy Polling results:
Bob Barr is running at 8 percent in the 828 area code (western mountains) and 7 percent in 910 (coastal plain). These are McCain’s strongest regions with a lot of military and retired military voters in 910 and Christian conservatives in 828. If Barr’s strength in those regions pulls even half that, a huge turnout in the Piedmont could turn the state.
Other crosstabs spell trouble for Dole, who seems to have third party troubles as well.

http://www.exileonjonesstreet.com/2008/09/21/ppp-crosstabs-in-nc-pres/

Too late for talk-like-a-pirate day, but Barrrrr!

I'll preface this by saying I'm white, and as a college student I lived in a large apartment as the only white guy in a fairly large apartment for three years with four other college students, all black, all students at NC A&T (I was attending UNC Greensboro, an arty-fartsy school where I studied art).

I never heard the term "African American" being used except when speaking to a white guy.

That said, I don't like "blacks" or "whites" being used, i.e. as a noun. THAT'S what sounds racist to me. I like it better exclusively as an adjective.

Obama campaign is hoping for 4-6.5% for Barr in GA to help us here....100,000 new registered voters in August alone in GA!!!

Sorry, but Obama already pulled staff out of GA. He knows he can't win GA.

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That does not show that they 'know' that they cannot win GA. It shows that GA is not going to be a tipping point in a close election. If he wins GA (and he might) then it is a landslide.

Now that is Hope.

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Wait!!! I AM BACK!!!

I found in general that persons growing up in the 50s, 60s and 70s might appreciate being called black. On the other hand, black and African American are interchangeable with my cohort. Sometimes, it is just an individualized preference.

The McPalin campaign had thought they could run a NC effort with minimum budget and staff: The place was a lock.

Wrong.

Heck, they're even losing some ground in South Carolina...not a good sign.

If the race is tightening in solid-Red SC, you can bet that is an ill omen for McCain's chances nationwide.

I am sorry but WHAT proof do you have that they are losing ground in SC.

Yeah, I'll believe South Carolina is in play when I see it.

What, is McCain only up by 20 there now?

Thank you, 1849. Since I'm in the older group, I guess it makes sense that I'm more comfortable using 'black.' Maybe the real answer is to use the term that feels most respectful to you -- glad if I'm not offending anyone by doing so.

South Carolina -- latest poll I've seen was a Rasmussen one from 9/18: 55% McCain, 41% Obama. (State went 58%-41% for Bush in 2004)

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I heard today that McCain is "opening offices in North Carolina" in response to Obamas successes there. Obama's campaign is outstanding!

McCain even copies Obama's words! Wouldn't a normal person be too embarassed to do that?

He says, "Enough" copying Obama, who used the phrase to respond to McCain's dishonest ads.

Now McCain has the hubris to say that "Obama doesn't get it!"

Many others as well. My conclusion: McCain isn't normal. In fact he is about 20 standard deviations from the norm. Palin? She fits into the norm for people who have never thought about having a world view; who think only of the next power grab, and who speak in tongues. In that group she is definitely in the norm. As to Vice Presidents, she is 90 standard deviations from the norm!

McCain Firewall Breaking in NC:

Obama drew 20,000 to a really in Charlotte today with another 10,000 outside the arena....The polls are tied!!!

Obama has 35 offices and 200+ staffers, McCain has 14 offices and 20 staffers.

Their answer to the tied polls - open 10 offices and send in 5-10 more people in now....

WOW! Thats the type of cavalry that is going to turn the tide...a platoon coming in late

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John Nail, et al.,

Black people are not "AA"s. Period. So what the hell do you so-called liberals call Asians? A's? White people are W's, right? Hispanics or Latinos must be H's and L's according to some anonymous pollster? Yeah, right. Yet apparently some of you believe it's acceptable to OBJECTIFY African-Americans since we're so obviously OTHER. Since you're still racists and apparently proud of your ignorance, try blogging on StormFront where you'll feel right at home.

Goldspinner, I'm going to add you to the group of people that think that Americans are really stupid. Your response is an obvious attempt to keep people off message. But nothing has changed. Obama will win North Carolina. I was at the Obama rally today in Charlotte and 30K is an understatement of the size of the crowd that came out to support Obama. I estimate a crowd size closer to 100K

I don't know who Goldspinner supports or if she is seriously angry at me for referring African Americans as AA's. But as a long time Obama supporter (2004 speech) and one who has donated quite a bit to his campaign and tries to get everyone I talk to, to vote for him I meant no disrespect to African Americans by shorting it to AA's. I am a computer geek and I shorten many things down automatically when typing. It is a old habit from playing FPS where you don't have time to type. If I didn't have a programming assignment due soon and had to work on it I would of been there for that rally downtown, since I live in then Queen city myself.

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Goldspinner, what do you want to be called? I might remind you that the lexicon changed from "black" to "African American" because people of that race ( scared to use any word -- wouldn't want to be called a racist ) wanted it that way. If you consider "African American", or "AA" for short, racist then you just might have an anger management problem. The term was not assigned by white people, remember. I think Djamo (sp) used the term "melanin-challenged" but that is not very practical.

Maybe you should tell us what term you would like us to use, since you have only deigned to tell us what offends you. You already said you are a republican. Is there a special name we need to use? Just let us know.

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Looking back up, I guess you want to be referred to as "black." Fine with me, but I must say that calling people racist for using a term that was supposed to be an improvement over "black" is a bit of a stretch, and maybe you should try to figure out the real reason for your anger.

Could it be because you are a republican? That would sure make me mad, and I am W.

Well it wasn't African American that got her set off it was me shorting it to AA, and it was just shorthand. I meant no offense by it, and everyone knew what i was talking about.

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As someone who lives in SC, the mainstream press, especially the statewide newspapers, are still a Repub stronghold, but I've seen oodles more excitement on the ground about Obama than McCain. There are a lot more signs in people's yards for democratic candidates on a local and national level than for Repub candidates.

The problem in SC is that the Repubs used to turn out the 'family values' Christian base in droves using sham amendments and such on hot-button issues. There hasn't been nearly as much of that this year, partly because the Repubs have already passed every anti-gay amendment they possibly can. But voter blocks who usually don't vote regularly or predictably (college-age and black voters especially) seem energized. I've heard quite a bit out of the most deeply impoverished districts in the state, which is strange since they're usually silent come election time. Community organizers (mock them at your peril) have worked overtime this election, more vocally than I've seen in the past.

I don't know if it's actually possible to put SC in play as a realistic bet for Obama, but there will be a heck of a lot more Democratic votes here than usual. One problem for Democrats is that SC's economy is particularly resilient to depressions. The state historically has a terrible economy to begin with, so what registers as a huge dip for the rest of the nation isn't as noticeable here, especially in the housing market. That means that some swing voters who might get swayed by the economy in other states won't see that issue as strongly in SC. It may be a red state still, but I wouldn't be surprised if the national media get shocked by how close the spread turns out to be.

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Oops, meant to reply upthread to where people were discussing SC. Oh well.

Any win for McCain that isn't at least 15 points is an ass-whipping comparatively, if not electorally, by Obama.

The problem is racism. Matter of fact check that it's conservatism. Kerry got about 15% of the white vote. Obama would need 21% to win the state, and that doesn't look like it's going to happen. I like that we are making it close though

Great news from NC-- thanks for posting.

I was in Charlotte today. There were 20,000 inside the gates and over 20,000 unable to get inside in time. The crowd was an incredible mix of whites, blacks, Latinos, Asians, old, young, etc.. Signs I saw and loved and was a little surprised to see: "NASCAR MAMA FOR OBAMA", "REDNECKS FOR OBAMA" and a surprising number of "Republicans for Obama". The event was not held in an arena, by the way...it was outside. People were incredibly enthusiastic - I heard a lot of people who didn't make it into the secure area say they were happy to have just been there waiting in the lines that stretched almost 3 miles and weaved through the city's high-rise blocks and parks. No question, race will play a part here but from what I hear from friends and relatives in "northern" states the impact of racism could be greater back home "up north". The other potential advantage for Democrats in North Carolina is that Democrats outnumber Republicans here. If we get out the vote...it may make "the" difference.

Getting out the vote "will" make the difference. I stood in line for hours and talked to a lot of people. the common theme was people young and old, black and white all thirsting for change. Everyone knows that change means a vote for Barack Obama. i even talked to a candidate running for judge who was Republican but said that he is for change and not more of the same.

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Cville Dem, et al.,

Since I actually happen to be a black person who votes in North Carolina, I could care less if I'm presumed to be "off message". Sneer if you like, but in this state Republicans are largely elected by Democrats so you can skip the partisan crap. It's a lesson Democrats haven't learned yet, especially in other southern states.

I'm still calling some of you out since you're still oblivious to your biases. This year, the game has permanently changed. If you haven't figured it out by now, the usual smug pontificating about black folks as if we're merely political pawns or poll stats isn't going to cut it anymore. You better watch what you call us, folks. The Clintons made the fatal mistake of disrespecting black voters and their hubris lost Hillary Clinton the nomination. At least in the Republican Party, people are refreshingly upfront about their prejudices. That's more than I can say about the closeted racists who call themselves Democrats.

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In Memphis the racists who wish to go unnoticed call African Americans 'democrats'. As in 'You don't want to go there the crowd is all democrats.' It took me quite a while to figure out what they were talking about since I am a white democrat and socially inept.

Maybe I can match you up with the husband of my wife's niece. He's a loony, too. So spin if you must fabricating some perceived slight by the use of "AA", (maybe your livelihood depends on it) but there are much bigger fish to fry. Your attempts to take the discussion of message is classic GOP bait and switch poppycock consumed by those easily distracted. So once again, demand remains flat here.

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OK, so the answer to my question is that you prefer to be called "black." I didn't see any "sneer" in the comments that you are so angry about.

I just have to wonder, if you are so furious at progressives like us, who believe ourselves to be color-blind, why are you a republican? They really do not respect black people at all, and manage to fit them into every negative stereotype you can imagine.

Some people are just angry. There is no pleasing them. So vote for John McCain and shoot yourself in the foot.

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Talk about being OBLIVOUS to BIASES!

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Ah, racial code!

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OK, you are a pathetic troll. Go and vote yourself into a coma!

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Bussta,

It's obvious that you find African-Americans amusing...which is probably why the first part of your screen name is a a play on the moniker of a certain well-known African-American singer/rapper. You really don't have a clue do you?

Turn out is going to be key, the amount of young voters and AA voters that don't normally turn out in NC will make the difference.

That is what i said, i am a "young voter" who voted for Obama in the primary. People have to categories people into groups in order for data to make any sense. What the hell do you expect? For everyone to say just the base numbers like its 46 46 in NC, But we wont tell you who's voting for who because that might insult people. When someone says we need to get people out to vote who don't normally it isn't some fing chess game, its about getting people involved in our democracy so McCain doesn't get elected and lead us into the next great depression.

If you want to play this retarded game of taken offensive over nothing, then so be it. But I will ignore this meaningless outrage, there are plenty of things to get angry about. If you live in NC then you how black schools are under funded more so then schools with more white kids. I know this because i grew up during the time when they bussed kids around in Charlotte. My sister teaches in a under funded school that is mostly enrolled with poorer minorities, that school and most schools need way more funding if these kids ever want to have a shot. That is something worth getting angry about, but me saying AA as shorthand is some type of huge diss. You have got to be kidding me. It is truly sad.

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Buster Brown was a comic strip (by and about whitey). Busta Rhymes was named after George "Buster" Rhymes, a football player. Someone mixes those two and suddenly they "find African-Americans amusing?"

And is that bad? Some African Americans are very amusing. That's why we let them and the Jews in the country club (through the side entrance, plz). We're favoring Mexicans for a lot of things these days--they're not as intimidating as the AAs--but they're just not very amusing. Carlos Mencia? Paul Rodriguez?

Here's something else not-funny:

"If you haven't figured it out by now, the usual smug pontificating about black folks as if we're merely political pawns or poll stats isn't going to cut it anymore. You better watch what you call us, folks."

You yourself have switched usage from "black" to "African-American" in the course of this thread. You are asking for respect. But you are not giving any. You are drawing lines in the sand and pitching a fit because someone used an abbreviation to describe your demographic. And yes, no matter what happens in this election, you will continue to be your demographic--you're an African American (AA), you're a woman (F), you're a Democrat (D), you live in North Carolina (NC).

Or are you saying that something has happened during this campaign that means black folks should no longer be included in discussions of demographic data?

The way I read this thread I see several people who may be a bit clueless, but who mean well and are (or were) trying to understand your perspective. And you, alone, doing your best to spread racism and hate.

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Fuzz,

Call someone who looks like me an "AA" and they'll probably go upside your head. Please feel free to try it for yourself.

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Musgrove, you're so illiterate. If you were capable of reading, you would know that I routinely describe myself and others of my ethnic background as either African-American or black. The issue is that the terms that many of us fought to be called back in the sixties and seventies (otherwise known as the "Black is beautiful" period)are anathema to you. African-Americans DO NOT refer to ourselves as "AAs". Since you obviously don't spend time with us, you haven't seemed to grasp that simple concept. Yet you and others become indignant when someone black calls you out on how you objectify a whole people according to your erroneous perceptions and comfort level. It's a matter of respect. Are you so uncomfortable with blackness or anything with African connotations to even pronounce the words? If we're only so-called AAs, you're no better than someone who calls me "nigger". Oh, that's right. You're probably one of those misguided types who keeps sprouting that naïve "post-racial" crap.

Don't lecture me about integration or the Charlotte-Mecklenburg school system; I'm a bit more experienced and knowledgeable in that area than you will EVER be. Plus unlike you, I've known Julius Chambers for most of my life and can quote whole sections of the Leandro decision. If not for children like me who were plaintiffs, the Swann decision wouldn't have happened in the first place. Defend your actions if you like, but you're still a smug, arrogant racist who refuses to accept that some of us black folks refuse to be objectified and labeled according what YOU find convenient. Deal with it.

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