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Two Weeks of Palin. . .Keep Pressing or Whipping a Dead Horse?


It was two weeks yesterday that Senator McCain announced his selection of Govern Palin of Alaska, an arch radical right-wing conservative with minimal experience.  In those two weeks we have focused on nothing except Governor Palin and her children, her ex-brother-in-law, her position on the Bridge to Nowhere, and we are really making her look silly (at least in our little bubble).  That is two weeks in an election that is approximately fifty days away.  That's two weeks since the starting date of the official campaign.  That's two weeks of Palin and nothing but Palin.

Well, how are we doing?  Should we keep it up?  Should we turn this election into a referendum on Governor Palin?  Is that the key to an Obama victory?   I think Josh Marshall and his fellow members of the creative class are having a field day, to the point where, from my vantage point, they have become a bit unhinged.  It's a weird spectacle.

If it works, nice job and shut my mouth.  If it doesn't we will know why.  I wonder how many of us who are voting for Senator Obama--either because we supported him from the start or, like yours truly, turned to him once HRC conceded--anticipated that the two weeks after Labor Day would center on the trashing of an easily trashable poor substantive choice of a vice presidential choice.

Is it concern trolling to question the strategy and to ask why Obama isn't talking about how he's going to preserve the American Dream into the 21st strategy?  Is it concern trolling to point out that, right now, two weeks after Labor Day, with the help of the fabulous creative class of bloggers and the MSNBC FOX wannabes, the Obama campaign appears to be rudderless and without heart and without soul.   Frankly, this Democrat doesn't care what you call it; I'd rather respond (or not) to a charge of concern trolling in September than be left with writing I told you so in November.

My Saturday morning opinion: this is getting stupid, really stupid, and this is why we Democrats generally lose elections.  How's 'bout I'm Senator Obama and in the first 90 days of my Administration, we are going to change the course of the last eight years by. . . tackling a health care system that isn't working, and  by eliminating our dependence on foreign oil producers.  Here's how we're gonna do it. . .

Let's get real for once.  Have a nice weekend.

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Sarah Palin is currently being vetted by the press, so of course people are talking about her. It won't last much longer. As soon as she starts screwing up in interviews and on the campaign trail, the McCain camp will put her on a plane and send her back to Alaska. Then the race will turn back to Obama v. McCain. Except that in the meantime, McCain will have alienated the press and convinced most of them that he's a sleazy, dishonest politician--completely unlike the John McCain they thought they knew and thought they admired. And then we will see if this is indeed a horse race, or if it is a slaughter.

Bingo.

You're not concern trolling, we are all concerned at this point and have every reason to be; I just think you're wrong. Sarah's why he was able to consolidate his base and the latent base in the middle that drifts back to red after flirting with change. She appeals in particular to whatever you want to call the voter without strong ideology who is not that engaged in politics (Perot, low-information, swing voter). We have to define her negatively because she's moving preferences and has very low negatives. That seems pretty straightforward to me.

We can't do all the stupid things that could go with that, like deemphasizing policy and ignoring McCain, those things are more important or most important -- but she's in the mix as a leading factor to deal with.

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I just wanted to make clear that I am absolutely not criticizing criticism of Governor Palin and I'm not questioning and I understand the need to engage in negative campaigning in an overall sense. I also recognize a distinction between the Obama campaign and bloggers like Josh (who are not charged with staying on campaign message). I do submit that it is not a good thing that the campaign has turned into a fight over Palin. It is not a good thing because it has altered the dialogue away from all of the reasons that we have real and genuine reason to believe that Senator Obama will be our next president.

Bruce, isn't the real or more nuanced question how we bring out the concrete negatives in her record (TrooperGate, Russia war gaffe, maybe the librarian, the rape kit, but most definitely the opposition to abortion except to save the woman's life) without having that be every discussion? Or is your point that one or more of these are radioactive, but one or more of them ok?

I think the specifics are the entire point. Can you please explain where you see the line?

Just the other day, Obama mentioned something he had heard from Roger Ailes -- yes, the Ailes who is the man behind the curtain at Fox News -- during his meeting with Rupert Murdoch and Ailes regarding the problematic coverage from Fox among other things. Let it be said, this was a meeting Murdoch wanted with Obama, not that Obama sought with Murdoch.

Ailes said the media is interested in covering just four things: polls, scandals, gaffes and attacks.

He's right. There is no room in the media for the substantive, policy-based, issue-driven discussion. This past week prior to the 9-11 memorial, Obama gave two substantive policy focused "when I am president" speeches. What the media covered was just the beginning (lipstick on pig smackdown).

So what to do... turn the election into a referendum on John McCain. Palin is just one of the symptoms of why McCain is unfit to serve.

You can concern troll, you can do something to get out the vote, you can frame issues into average person talking points -- which is IMHO what blogs like this do. You can start writing that "I told you so" blog -- but be sure to do the alternate version that starts, "Obama won. I told you so."

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Well, that's a fair suggestion; I will have alternate post-election "I toldya sos"! But I am not suggesting that the campaign be turned into C-Span; the message that Obama is telling folks about the real things he is going to do does not have to digress into substantive nuance that could never resonate in the frenzy of the campaign.

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you can frame issues into average person talking points -- which is IMHO what blogs like this do.

Hilariously wrong! You're in deep denial about what this website is about.

The owner says it in black and white right here:

What We Do 01.22.08 -- 11:27AM By Josh Marshall

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/162969.php

that covering issues is like force-feeding spinach and that he will not be doing much of it for the election season, that he will be emphasizing horse race. Not issues, get your issues elswhere. And not only for pandering to audience reasons; he actually argues there that it is good to do so, that all the b.s. is part of the democracy game and it's all good, and issues are not the democracy game.

He knows his audience.

Deep denial, Jade. Show me a bunch of blog posts here on issues that have high recommend numbers on them. Actually look at the website you are on, look at what's being covered and what the audience likes and posts on. Polls polls polls, what's the latest mud-wrestle, advertising evaluation and discussion, daily talking points info., who's doing what to manipulate the voters, who scored that day. I haven't done a study, but I'd throw out a guess that 90% of reader blogs are not on "issues." Record traffic, busting the server. It's what the political junkies want. They don't want no stinkin issues.

Those with interest in issues are a small minority relegated to a few TPMCAfe posts and don't bother posting blogs because they don't last anywhere visible for more than a few minutes.

I partake of "horse race" coverage in the blogosphere but do so guiltily, believing the opposite of Josh Marshall, that it does a lot of damage to the election process, and that the populace, ever since they invented public education, is capable of getting interested in issues. I enjoy issues just as much and can't wait till the election is over so I can partake of the blogosphere without feeling guilty.

The blogsophere needs to look in the mirror. It just makes me laugh now to read the holier than the MSM line. It has gotten ridiculous, the blogosphere is feeding this to a level more than ever before in history, massively feeding it, precisely feeding it, straight into the veins of the MSM.

Those that blame it on the MSM and then give massive traffic to sites like this, show the MSM what they want covered on the news more surely than Neilsen ratings do. The political blogosphere audience, left and right, has totally affected what gets covered on cable TV news, anyone who says it hasn't is in deep denial or doesn't actually watch it. They friggin cite the blogosphere all the time, they are their audience, the audience is profitable, it's the best focus group they can find. You want issues discussed, start posting on them and clicking on them, they'll change the coverage balance pronto, it can only mean profit for them. As it is now, any issues are covered at a loss of profit to them, when they actually do so, it's a public service.

Political junkies want their horse race. Anyone that can't see that most of this site is not at all about issues is just blind and, ironically, doesn't agree with the publisher and chief editor of the site about what it's about.

Sometimes people's intentions are different than the results...

I stumbled onto this website by accident. My husband forwards me articles he thinks I will find interesting, and one of those was a TPM post in mid-July.

As I dug a little deeper into the site I found a community of interesting people with interesting ideas. I was compelled to make a post and through the comments got labeled a concern troll. I stuck with it, made my case, and now consider myself to be a part of the community. Although I had already determined that I was going to vote for Obama (even though, at that time I was a long-time registered Republican) you guys are personally responsible for me changing my party affiliation, and I am now, proudly, a recovering Republican and official Democrat, actually WORKING for Obama and supporting his campaign financially.

I now post at other sites, direct other people to this site, support those here who perhaps get discouraged...bug the msm w/ e-mails constantly, and use the posts here as a launching pad to articles I would never have found on my own. I voted for the 1st time in 1972 at the age of 20. I am now 56 and voting for the very first time as an INFORMED voter, and I owe it to TPM.

So regardless of the "mission" of the site...it accomplishes good things from time to time...

So sad to see you are officially a democrat. You know you can vote for democrats and still be a registered republican right? How will the party ever change if reasonable and rational republicans (perhaps as much as 30% right now) all become democrats? I am not looking for one-party rule on the left or right, just leadership that is enlightened and progressive.

A one-party system never leads to enlightened and progressive leadership. Despite the New Deal, FDR still developed nuclear weapons and interned American citizens. Make no mistake. He would have dropped the bomb as well had it been his choice.

No party is perfect unless the people within it are somehow perfect.

No one is perfect.

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You want this to end? Tell mcShame to pull the plug!

The press will cover sensational topics, and right now, that's Palin. They just don't care about policy. However, I believe that the tenor and focus will shift somewhat when the debates start.

In the meantime, what to do? We can't let the Repubs define Sarah, there does have to be pushback on that. And, more constructively, we have about 3 weeks left to keep registering voters in those swing states. That may just be what ends up making the difference in what could be an extremely close vote. And if you're not the sort to do door-to-door canvassing or phone banking, talking to friends, neighbors, and associates about the election. Get people engaged and make sure they're informed and ready to vote.


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Bruce, I agree with Carol and others. Palin is already a force in the election, much more so than Biden. If every campaign surrogate and liberal blog stopped referring to her, she would still be a force in the election b/c America is fascinated with her.

Given that her presence in the race has an impact, now is the time to define her. Show her to be liar and a pinhead to deflate the enthusiasm. Then move back to the primary target.

If the public cared about lying, George Bush would have been impeached.

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True, GW is a liar and a pinhead. But I don't think that the public doesn't care so much as Dems weren't able to successfully brand him as a liar. That's party because he was good at lying, better than McCain and Palin.

Gasket: how do you do this??

This is another simple one-liner from you that packs paragraphs of arguments in a single punch.

I will shamelessly steal and appropriate it, I hope you don't mind.

Apparently, you're the only one who gets it, Lalo. Feel free to use it, but I'd use it with a bunch of explanatory footnotes for the peanut gallery.

Maybe just stay away from nonsensical sweeping statements.

Maybe you should stay away from discussing Watergate.

Oooh, another sneer.

You excel. at them. I bow to the superior sneermeister..

"People" seemed to care about Watergate. What was that about, if not lying? The only difference with now is that the Congress aided and abetted that lying. During Watergate, they were shamed into denouncing it.

People do care. We're seeing that now that McCain stepped over the line blatantly and often.

The tedious Palin bashing is easy, maybe by design. A grand stall. I'd rather it ran it's course as quickly as possible.

Of course you know that Watergate was about much more than lying, so I'm not sure why you are comparing the two. McCain's campaign does not = Watergate.

Spying on the DNC, sure. That wasn't the problem. The lying was.

I'm not fond of rvisionist history from either side. Sorry.

It's an apt comparison to the sweeping statement "people don't care about lying.

Of course they do.

I'm sure you can think outside of yourself, can't you? Or do you, like most TPMers, project your feelings onto the general population and assume they think the way you do?

If lying were so important to voters, we would have had a President Gore and a President Kerry. At this point it's not clear we will even get a President Obama.

I believe in fighting stupidity with stupidity. OK, Gasket, have it your way the American people don't care about lying.

Who was branded the liar in 2004 and 200?0? Kerry, about his military record, and Gore, ovver inventing the internet.

Maybe you and your cynicism is what's being projected here. Obama got a half million new donors last month, how does that figure into your doom and gloom scenario?

Maybe you need to take your condescending sneers and aim them at the Republicans.

So would Bill Clinton and ever president before him.

Um, Clinton was impeached by the House.

Because he.....

A doesn't follow B here. The Constitution doesn't say that the President shall be impeached on the condition that American people conclude that he or she has lied. If the American people cared about his crimes enough to motivate Congress to act, then perhaps he would be impeached. Even so, Nancy Pelosi could still choose to table all such motions; she has that power.

So, your statement, while superficially punchy, has little to do with political reality.

Compare that with Bill Clinton's situation - and eat your own words.

:-)

Impeachable offenses are defined so vaguely that all it takes is enough pressure.

There wasn't enough pressure, that's all.

Oh, sorry, DF. Next time I'll use the term "high crimes and misdemeanors" instead of "lying." I'll also include a flowchart to show how lying connects to impeachable offenses. 'K?

Oh, so it is about lying? Make up your mind. Or just dis everyone as being too stupid to "get" it.

FYI, they do, they just think it's a cynical twisted view. Or, "stupid" if you prefer.

Corkscrew please?

bslev, I'm content to let her self-implode. She's doing a fab job so far.

Hi Bruce --

I wanted to say how much I like your posts. I've always enjoyed your flair and your tone, as well as your points.

The thing about Palin is that she's fun. It's fun to call her stupid. It's fun to call McCain stupid for picking her. It's fun to call - or think -- of her supporters as stupid. it makes us look at our eloquent nominee and his experienced VP choice and feel like we are so much smarter than them. So much smarter, so much better, so much superior to our opponents and their supporters.

And add to that, the fun of a scandal. It was fun to make insinuations about the baby. It's fun to look for all these little scandals and assume they all combine into something nefarious, as if no politician has ever exaggerated an achievement, as if no politician has tried to get money for their home state or town, as if no politician has ever used their office to pursue a personal vendetta. We're having so much fun that we don't realize that none of these scandals -- none of them -- amount to much of anything in the scheme of national or even local politics. But it's fun to do. Maddow gets to refer to Todd Palin as the First Dude with an appropriate smirk. Olbermann gets to have a special comment, and we all applaud. See how much better we are? And then we get to call her a liar. That's fun, too. Fun to toss insults.

But none of them are really lies. She did pull against the bridge. Did she flip her position from originally supporting it? Sure. Last week on O'Reilly, Obama said the surge worked. Seems like a flip. Did she try to bring in earmarked funds? Sure. Is anyone undecided going to hold that against her, even when she claims she didn't? Maybe, but I doubt it. That's what politicians do.

She's about emotion, after all, because she seems familiar. She seems like she's one of us, one of them. She's everybody's abrasive friend. She chose life. She raised her family. it doesn't matter what she says, because her campaign is about how she makes them feel.

Which we should understand, because that's what Obama's campaign has been about. He makes us feel good, feel hopeful, feel positive about the future. He's light on specifics -- yeah, I know, read the website or his books -- and if anyone who has backed him says otherwise, I guess I'll just have to say "fine" because there's no point arguing about it. But there's not a lot there. Not much time in the Senate, not much time even as a state senator. Not a lot to pull from.

To me, that's okay. I don't really care about qualifications -- I think BC was right -- no one is ready for the job. After all, Presidents have the best support staff in the world -- what I need from a President is the ability to analyze information and make a good decision. I don't know enough about either of them to know who does better on that front -- we never really do. So we move on faith. I have faith Barak Obama is a good man who can look at a big picture and make a courageous and thoughtful decision.

But there's no evidence that Sarah Palin is any different. She might not have that ability. I just don't know. Neither do most people.

What I do know is that she's not stupid. She's too quick to be stupid. I know she's decisive. I know I disagree with a lot of her positions, and would hate to see many of them put into law. But I also know we're exaggerating a lot of them, too, because it's fun.

And I know the more fun we have at her expense -- the more little scandals we try to turn into big ones, the more we talk about her lack of qualifications, the more we drive people to her. It's fun, after all. But fun can come with a price.

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OMG Bruce, you called Palin a horse! Horse-faced is a sexist insult. Just ask Sarah Jessica Parker!

All joking aside... I really doubt that many presidential campaigns have been won by the strategy of sending your top guy in to take down the opponent's running mate.

Palin really irks me. She's exactly the kind of person I hate. But she's Veep. Most voters think that the Veep does nothing every day. Heck, during the 90s I thought that about Al Gore (I really kind of imagined Clinton saying something like "I'm going to run the place while you go, uh... reinvent government or whatever.")

When Sarah Palin said "I don't even know what the vice president does every day," a lot of us here saw that as a gaffe. But I think that the less politically obsessed, to the extent that they registered the remark at all, probably shrugged and said "me neither."

Aside from being runner-up in the beauty pageant, the VP job isn't important to people. We can't afford to focus our campaign on Palin when, if McCain wins and lives out his four years, she'll do little but champion a few initiatives, meet with a few foreign leaders and spend her time grooming herself for a 2012 run. Ironically, I think that if we run against her, we risk giving away 4 years of McCain and then 8 years with Palin, resulting in an incredible 20 year long Bush doctrine that we will not emerge from as a first world nation.

Hey Bruce. I just wanted to check back in further to my comment earlier. The R2k tracker shows Palin with favorable/unfavorables of 49/40 now that the Gibson information is being assimilated into the public's consciousness. This is a marked departure from negs in the low 30s earlier in the week, and ratios of 56/28 we were seeing during her convention.

I think that's consistent with the view that the right presses on her are important. If you get a chance, I'd be very curious to know which ones you think are right and good, and which not and bad. A

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You've got a point but it's not the fault of the bloggers or even the MSM. Democrats have no brand. Democrats have no message. The whole "centrist" premise is to be reactive. Watch what the other side does and then slide on over thataway. All that does is leave the Republicans entirely in control of both the strategy and the tactics. Consider the head fake on Georgia. Now, any dispassionate person should have known that Americans couldn't find Georgia on a map (even our own Georgia) and couldn't care less about it. But Obama was intimidated into picking a gray beard foreign policy wonk because of the faux hysteria over Georgia. Then surprise, surprise, it's the small town babe.

If Democrats had a message they were authentically determined to sell come hell or high water (and the Republicans seem to have brought the country both hell and high water) they wouldn't be lead down the garden path.

I think the big-picture problem that Democrats have is their ideology hasn't moved too far from the 1930-60s and they are still fighting the ideological war, both on civil rights, on economy and on poverty.

Secondly, they have a problem finding good candidates. They pick either very "fresh" and still untainted people who fold like paper dolls or the battle-hardened veterans who bring back memories of past struggles.

That's why I like DLC. It's the only body in this party that has successfully tried to bridge these gaps.

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The DLC is the bridge to nowhere.

Bruce,

I have three points to make:

1) She is important. People are voting for John McCain because she was selected. Prior to her nomination, far right wing blogs (All American Blogger comes to mind) and conservatives refused to cover McCain. They were always going to vote for McCain, if they went to vote at all, but there was no excitement. These investigations ARE having an impact, it reduces their enthusiasm. Best case is that her fans see her as just another politician, worst case... will not dwell on that,

2) Obama is campaigning on the issues, but as MsJoanne noted, the media will not cover the substantive issues, because they are fascinated with Palin. What to do? Can't ignore her. The media has every intention of defining her, so we have to help with unearthing as much information as possible. This helps Point 1.

3) The debates will help refocus the public on what matters, not lipstick, Britney or Hilton (I hope). In the meantime the Obama is trying to hijack the news cycle using the same techniques as the McCain campaign.

It's pretty obvious that Obama's in the position McCain was in a while back. In order to get himself in the news cycle, McCain had to be talking about Obama.

Now it's Obama's turn. If he wants to be in the news cycle, it has to be in connection with Sarah Palin because she is the news right now. And this is the problem. If you tune into to what Obama is saying on the trail, he is constantly clarifying his programs and honing his message. But there's no way that's going to get any play in the media.

You've got rabid white people panting over Sarah Palin, and tuning in on their idiot boxes and ponying up for as many up close and personal magazine articles as the print media can turn out. And if any of us think the mainstream media is going to pull the plug on her story to tell us that Obama has clarified his plan for decreasing middle class income taxes and/or his plan for health care, it's time for new medications.

To me it seems he can get the narrative back in only one of two ways: by dealing with Palin, and dealing with her in a big way or by getting really angry at the tenor of the campaign, and that in a big way too. But he'd have to levitate five feet above ground as he speaks to get any press play out of pure message.

It's American politics. Bread and circuses. Let's remember how Hillary Clinton got her mojo back in Ohio and PA. She stood in front of a camera screeching meet me in Phildelphia, Barack Obama. And she jumped on the bitter comments and rode them for everything they were worth, and she belted boilermakers and talked about duck hunting. All horseshit, but she took the states.

Now I'm not suggesting Obama try the same crap so please nobody jump on that. But I think it's at the point where the mob will respond only to cheap theatrics of some kind. And I think Obama's between a rock and hard place because of it.

Even O'Reilly now says Obama is 100% sincere and really means what he says (and that Obama's way tough too, by the by), so doing what McCain has been doing won't come easy. It may not come at all.

Stay tuned for the debates. that may be the last chance -- short of some October surprise.

"Even O'Reilly now says Obama is 100% sincere and really means what he says ..."

Nobody ever said he wasn't sincere. As I recall, McCain said he's sincere but unprepared and has wrong ideas.

Kind of what Obama was supposed to be saying all summer.

Frame the attacks going forward as McCain faults, such as she is unprepared, McCain failed the judgment test, she is unprepared, McCain failed the country first test, she is a liar, McCain will dishonor himself and this country to become president. He will not have your back, it will be more for big oil, less for our economy and pocketbooks.

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Bruce,

I like your points, for analysis reasons. But heh, dr. artappraiser, practicing without a license, also has some suggestions for your mental health, about letting go of the ability to affect what's going on in the blogosphere at this stage of the game.

Keep in mind the Obama campaign is net savvy. Keep in mind he has never shown much fondness for "netroots." Keep in mind his long ago dissing of DKos, saying to New York Magazine in Sept. 2006 that "One good test as to whether folks are doing interesting work is, Can they surprise me. And increasingly, when I read Daily Kos, it doesn’t surprise me. It’s all just exactly what I would expect." Read his famous post there again:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/9/30/102745/165
Then read this dissection of that post of Obama's by someone at agonist.org.

I think the latter is spot on.

Also read Ian Welsh at the top of that thread: Why Obama Doesn't Care About the Netroots And Why He Wasn't At Netroots Nation.

If he loses, it will be his fault, not the blogosphere. Smart people will know it, and even more so, he will know it (after all, he knew he was taking a big risk even running so early in his career.) He's not a deer in the headlights. That's not what you'll read in the blogosphere if he loses, and that's going to be part of reality then, too. I will quote a title of a famous Goya print: and nothing can be done about it. At this stage, to think that way is not defeatism, it's to recognize who he is and what the realities are. If he wants help, he'll ask for it (and I mean that in a sophisticated manner, an example would be a Sister Souljah moment or two with this base or that base or even a Josh Marshall) but all they seem to want is money and GOTV volunteers.

But the reverse will be equally true. If he wins it will have nothing to do with the blogosphere.

Please don't mention this to Josh Marshall, he's already so unhinged I seriously worry about his mental state.

Dude, step away from your computer.

You need a break.

I'll quibble with two points here. First, Obama has been campaigning and talking about his message, whether or not we here have.

Second, "freeing ourselves from the dependence on foreign oil" is a red herring. This will never happen. We will either free ourselves from dependence on oil or not at all. American oil production peaked in the 1970s. We only produce 25% of what we consume. Face facts: We will never be free from dependence on foreign oil until we stop using it. So, let's talk about that instead of continuing to use this erroneous talking point.

And please, spare me the drilling rigamarole unless you want to come with some hard numbers. In doing so, you'll save me the time of having to explain why it's irrelevant.

DF, excuse me, but your avatar reminds me of a guy from a Star Trek episode ... or something like that. I seem to remember him twirling a blade of some sort with a fair amount of skill.

Keep pressing. I don't think she's even qualified to be President of the Senate.

It's not an ideal world and the American electorate is far from ideal. Based on the disaster of the last eight years Obama should be at about 70 no matter what. There are other, largely irrational factors (racism, gender politics, etc).

Most people do not see the world in numeric or logical terms. They see the world in terms of narrative. Two weeks ago Sarah Palin, a complete unknown (and therefore an unforgivably irresponsible choice for McCain to foist upon the electorate for this very important position) was known only by her narrative, which was shaped by Rovian spin-meisters interrupted (somewhat fortuitously) by a firestorm of wild and not-so-wild but definitely trashy and disturbing rumors from the Great White Northwest.

It is necessary to frame a more relevant narrative: extreme ideas, audacious and continual lies, and subtle questions about her character which are starting to disquiet a lot of people. Who does she remind you of: a person who really cares about other people, or one who only cares about herself and will say and do anything to advance her own interests? Who does she remind you of in your own life, the aunt who came over and cared for you when you were sick or the friend's mother who sent him to boarding school while she climbed the social ladder?

There's another narrative besides the one her handlers are spinning, and now is the time to get that one out.