A question about state polls.
I've been watching the congressional race in ID-1. I was under the impression that Minnick(D) was running around 9pts down after Palin's announcement (based on a KOS poll).
Pollster has posted a few others for the race now and it's confusing. It LOOKS like one guy is polling Minnick ahead by around 6 points. At the same time another guy seems to have him down by 12. I've never heard of either pollster. Am I looking at this right?
Anyone have any thoughts about what this might mean?
Pollster has posted a few others for the race now and it's confusing. It LOOKS like one guy is polling Minnick ahead by around 6 points. At the same time another guy seems to have him down by 12. I've never heard of either pollster. Am I looking at this right?
Anyone have any thoughts about what this might mean?
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I don't think I'd put too much stock in any of it. In the first place, there's almost no data and no history. There's a little info on the internals of the DailyKos poll, but none on the others. The Greg Smith poll was commissioned by the IRP and looks like a PR piece, rather than an actual poll.
October 8, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Without the GOP poll in the mix, would the Pollster trend line say the democrat was winning?
The race flipped from "Likely GOP" to "Leans GOP" a few weeks ago(Based on Kos I think). With the second poll from "Harstad" at +6 for Minnick - I wonder if the race would have moved to "tossup" without the +12 GOP poll balancing it out?
IMO, this is a sleeper race - very winnable for the democrats. Sali has very low favorable ratings (20s-30s) and a cash disadvantage; the Harstad polls actually seem plausible.
October 8, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK, here's my read: I think Harstad is working for Minnick. Here's a link to their website:
http://www.harstadresearch.com/
It appears they may be handling Minnick's internal polling, and they may know things the other pollsters don't know. As to whether Minnick can actually win, I don't know Idaho well (I used to live there, but it was before I was old enough to vote), but I know the state is pretty darn red. And by red, I mean they tend to stick with the party regardless of who the candidate is. Idaho is the Alabama of the Northwest.
October 9, 2008 3:25 AM | Reply | Permalink