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Ballgame
It’s over.
McCain has officially blown his two best chances on the national stage to reverse the tide, the first in a foreign policy draw, the second just hours ago in what was supposed to be his home court.
My immediate reaction was Obama won. After giving it a little thought, and piecing together moments from the debate, it was a beatdown of historic proportions. This was our equivalent of the Nixon-Kennedy debate that found Kennedy collected and Nixon drenched in flop sweat.
Americans love theater, and this doomed McCain tonight. He may have thrived in town hall settings in the past, but the format doesn’t translate as well on a nationally televised broadcast. It’s an absurd yardstick to measure a debate by — instead than policy — but for people who remain “undecided” about two candidates with such stark policy contrasts, political theater matters.
Neither candidate broke any new ground, which is a win for the frontrunner.
Tonight, Obama looked and sounded presidential. After the first few minutes, he seemed even more relaxed and confident than McCain. Rhetorically there was no comparison: Obama had a forceful, convincing delivery while McCain sounded like he was whispering conspiratorially to his “friends.”
McCain didn’t do himself any favors in the debate, between his ill-advised “That one” comment, to his humorless attempt at a hair transplant joke, to his mantra of “my friends,” which came close to rivaling Giuliani’s 9/11 verbal crutch.
McCain was supposed to dominate the foreign policy debate. He didn’t.
McCain was supposed to thrive in the town hall debate format. He lost.
McCain was supposed to be the steady, experienced leader with the ability to guide a nation through a difficult time, but his actions over the last few weeks have caused conservative commentators like George Will to wonder aloud if he’s fit for office.
The economy is in the tank, and most economists don’t predict things to get better until early 2009. This, coupled with the fact that McCain blew it on his two best chances to publicly demonstrate his singular ability to lead, makes a McCain presidency less likely each day. Polls show — and McCain aides admit — that Obama wins if the economy is the top concern for voters.
Nothing in the next 26 days will change people’s mind about the economy. And there aren’t many more chances for McCain to discover a message that resonates.
McCain has officially blown his two best chances on the national stage to reverse the tide, the first in a foreign policy draw, the second just hours ago in what was supposed to be his home court.
My immediate reaction was Obama won. After giving it a little thought, and piecing together moments from the debate, it was a beatdown of historic proportions. This was our equivalent of the Nixon-Kennedy debate that found Kennedy collected and Nixon drenched in flop sweat.
Americans love theater, and this doomed McCain tonight. He may have thrived in town hall settings in the past, but the format doesn’t translate as well on a nationally televised broadcast. It’s an absurd yardstick to measure a debate by — instead than policy — but for people who remain “undecided” about two candidates with such stark policy contrasts, political theater matters.
Neither candidate broke any new ground, which is a win for the frontrunner.
Tonight, Obama looked and sounded presidential. After the first few minutes, he seemed even more relaxed and confident than McCain. Rhetorically there was no comparison: Obama had a forceful, convincing delivery while McCain sounded like he was whispering conspiratorially to his “friends.”
McCain didn’t do himself any favors in the debate, between his ill-advised “That one” comment, to his humorless attempt at a hair transplant joke, to his mantra of “my friends,” which came close to rivaling Giuliani’s 9/11 verbal crutch.
McCain was supposed to dominate the foreign policy debate. He didn’t.
McCain was supposed to thrive in the town hall debate format. He lost.
McCain was supposed to be the steady, experienced leader with the ability to guide a nation through a difficult time, but his actions over the last few weeks have caused conservative commentators like George Will to wonder aloud if he’s fit for office.
The economy is in the tank, and most economists don’t predict things to get better until early 2009. This, coupled with the fact that McCain blew it on his two best chances to publicly demonstrate his singular ability to lead, makes a McCain presidency less likely each day. Polls show — and McCain aides admit — that Obama wins if the economy is the top concern for voters.
Nothing in the next 26 days will change people’s mind about the economy. And there aren’t many more chances for McCain to discover a message that resonates.
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It must be about time for the Rovian mob to roll out the October surprise. The collapse of the economy just hasn't felt like it's it.
Anyone have any ideas what this is going to look like?
October 8, 2008 1:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
There ISN'T any "October Surprise," except the 10/15 debate, which will be McShame's last stand, and final loss.
October 8, 2008 2:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
When the debate was over, the image that stuck in my mind was seeing McCain wandering all over the stage. As if he were bouncing off the walls. It would be something to see this debate in fast motion to see if he would appear as weird as I felt he looked.
October 8, 2008 1:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Same with me, Jester. Watching McCain shuffle around like he is even older than he is was painful to watch. I almost wanted somebody to force him to stay seated.
Obama just made him look like a hunched over senior citizen. You couldn't help but notice how dissimilar the candidates were both in tone and presence.
October 8, 2008 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nathan; I'd like to hope it's over. But there's still too much time, time for "events," too many factors in play, each with enormous volatility attached. I've never seen an election which has seen this many wild cards already played - with potential for more to come.
The one Obama's been stepping most carefully around is the Bail-Out. He IS more closely identified with it than McCain, and there's still real odds that the markets simply "vapor-lock" - complete seizure - and the Bail-Out is then perceived as having "failed." Could McCain maneuver past him if this happens? Maybe. Same with foreign policy events - how about another hostage taking & how they respond to that? Or even an event on domerstic soil? How about a major disruption in oil supplies? More serious threats on candidates?
One thing this campaign has not lacked is surprises. More are possible. I'm praying for a bit of stability. That's it, that's all.
October 8, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Quinn, yesterday I would have agreed with your post.
I don't agree that Obama is more closely identified with the bailout *among undecideds* - I think the perception is they each had a hand in it.
If the markets do freeze up, I seriously doubt that will cause voters to flock to McCain. On the other hand, I really don't see how -- absent half-priced gas -- most of the public would feel comfortable about the direction of the economy in the next 3 weeks.
I do agree with you that the one gamechanger would be a national security issue that arises...but aside from that, I think *knocking furiously on wood* that it's in the bag.
October 8, 2008 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's not remotely over. As I write, Obama leads 49.3%-43.5% in the pollster.com average of national polls. He's not even at 50%. With all the racism out there, it's perfectly reasonable to assume most of the "undecideds" will go for McCain, and possibly some of the people who say they're for Obama too. It won't take that big a change in the dynamics of the race for McCain to win.
While I'm not saying these boards should serve only as an extension of the Obama campaign, I really would question the purpose of this post. The more confident you feel, the harder you should work. The bigger the win, the better.
October 8, 2008 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
dedelste,
I'm afraid national polls are interesting but irrelevant. The only thing that matters are the battleground states, and the trends there don't show any signs of slowing down.
If you're concerned about the Bradley effect (of racism/polls), I'd recommend checking out an entry on Huffington Post, which makes a pretty good argument against that.
Naturally, you are right - the worst thing the Obama campaign could do is quit fighting...but I'm pretty sure they're going full-throttle regardless of my pithy post here.
October 8, 2008 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink