Howard Wolfson has authored a new article for The New Republic.

The title?  It's Over: Why Bill Ayers Won't Save John McCain. 

We'll look at the article in a moment.  However, for those relatively new TPMers who may not know or recall the details of why the article is remarkable (four months is an eternity in a Presidential election, after all), we'll provide some back-story.

The back-story goes months and months back, lost in a mashed-up, hazy fog of bailouts, lipstick, evaporating jobs, zingers, gaffes and Surge (apply directly to the violence!)...way back in time...to the spring of 2008.  (Hey, four months is an eternity in most elections, this one in particular.)

Howard Wolfson was, at that time, employed by Sen. Hillary Clinton as the communications director for her Presidential campaign.  Wolfson is, as a result, one of the main reasons why Barack Obama should thank Clinton on a daily basis for the grueling Democratic primary. 

Wolfson, you see, crafted the daily assaults, talking points and non-stop conference calls that drove the conversation about Obama from early March until the North Carolina and Indiana primaries in May.  He was unabashedly aggressive, and a real pain to work against.  If you needed to win a news cycle, though, Wolfson was THE guy.  Only Steve Schmidt comes close to him in terms of manipulating the media.

It's through this prism that I always saw Wolfson, the political operative.  So, I was definitely surprised to see "A Clintonite In Denver", Wolfson's well-written and heartfelt opinion piece in the September 1 Washington Post.  Based on the timeline of Wolfson's post-primary activities, and the melancholy he described after Clinton conceded, this article reads as much-needed catharsis, where he finally connects with what made his former opponent such a force.

Now, fast-forward to today.  Wolfson takes his keen analytical eye to the current state of the Presidential race, and the beginnings of what appears to be a no-slime-barred closing push by John McCain's campaign against Obama.

Remember, Wolfson is the man who so effectively stirred the pot on Rev. Jeremiah Wright and Bill Ayers throughout the spring, on a few occasions nearly derailing the Obama campaign.  A lesser politician than Obama would have been sunk between March and May.

So, Wolfson opens up with a powerful lede, in the process laying the groundwork for an analysis that, while perhaps a tad overconfident, comes from a source who's been down the same road against the same opponent.

Perpetually fretting Democrats will not want to accept it. The campaigns themselves can't afford to believe it. Many journalists know it but can't say it. And there will certainly be some twists and turns along the way. But take it to a well capitalized bank: Bill Ayers isn't going to save John McCain.  The race is over.

I've been canvassing and phonebanking here and away from home for the last month, and I've assiduously avoided saying anything like that to myself.  But there it was, clear as day on my monitor.

The.  Race.  Is.  Over.

Barring new video of a half-dressed Obama with a Boy Scout troop in a seedy motel room doing keggers with Osama bin Laden while Bill Ayers and Rev. Michael Pfleger chant nearby with togas askance, I came to realize, with the same certainty I felt after the last Bush-Kerry debate in 2004...

The.  Race.  Is.  Over.

Wolfson then states precisely why it's all over.

If the election were tomorrow, Obama would win all of the states John Kerry carried and add Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio and Florida. Barack Obama is campaigning in Indiana, which last went for a Democrat in 1964 and North Carolina, which has gone for a Democrat only once in thirty-four years. At the same time John McCain has pulled out of Michigan and Sarah Palin has been forced to visit Nebraska.

This dynamic is very unlikely to change. John McCain's goal in the first debate was to discredit Senator Obama as a credible Commander in Chief and elevate the issue of foreign policy and national security. He didn't come close. Absent a domestic terror attack the economy will remain the number one issue in the race, and there is little Senator McCain can do to make up his gap with Senator Obama on it. Oh, Senator McCain will try to make issues of Bill Ayers and Tony Rezko and Rev. Wright, and that might hurt Senator Obama around the margins -- but it will not prevent him from winning.  The economy is simply bigger than the rogues gallery that John McCain is conjuring up.

Now, please don't think I'm backing down.  Not at all.  In fact, I'm going to my local campaign office as soon as this is over to do more phonebanking.

However, after spending two great weekends canvassing and talking to undecided voters in southern Ohio - including one memorable instance where I wound up drawing a group of about 30 older Whites to hear me giving my spiel to one of their neighbors - I read Wolfson's words, not with a pang of trepidation, but rather with equal parts elation and energy.

Of course, strictly speaking, the election is not over, and will not be until the last polls in Hawaii close.  One of the greatest maxims in competitive chess is that the hardest thing to do is win a won game.  You always have to analyze, plan and be prophylactic.  You can't overlook a trick, or miss a tactic. 

I'm starting to feel it, though.  The electoral board shows a real - and growing - strategic advantage for Obama.  And, like in chess, McCain is now being reduced to desperate tactics, bereft of strategic benefit, made only in the hope that Obama will overlook one of them out of overconfidence.

I knew Pennsylvania was a lock a week before McCain even pulled out of Michigan.  I think we're winning Ohio and Virginia.  McCain's new revelation that his health-care plan involves huge cuts in Medicare and Medicaid may well seal his fate with Florida's senior population.  The last three polls out of North Carolina - a state I never, ever thought Obama could win - show Obama with a lead. 

It's even having an effect downballot.  I focus especially on the Senate, where the once-impossible 60 seats is looking more and more, well, possible.  Jeff Merkley has moved ahead of Sen. Gordon Smith in Oregon.  Kay Hagan is all but certain to knock out Sen. Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina.  Jim Martin is in a virtual tie with Sen. Saxby Chambliss for Chambliss's Georgia seat.  Jeanne Shaheen is closing out Sen. John Sununu in New Hampshire.  Al Franken has pulled even with Sen. Norm Coleman in Minnesota. 

And, in my personal favorite, Bruce Lunsford is almost even with Sen. Mitch McConnell in Kentucky.  We owe the Republicans for Tom Daschle; I'd love to see their Senate leader get wiped out.

What makes me happiest, though, is that I've competed enough - in politics and other endeavors - that I trust my instincts.  Every instinct I have - supported by virtually every poll I've seen over the last month - tells me that our hard work will pay off 29 days hence. 

This makes me want to work even harder.  I'm getting greedy now.  I want a blowout - an unmistakable mandate - to give Obama political capital he can spend making his platform reality.

Wolfson is right.  The race is over.  We just have to bring it home.