McCain to Dial Down Smears Soon
Why will he dial it down? Has he grown a conscience? Hardly. McCain will stop because it isn't having the desired effect.
The whole purpose of going negative is to bring down your opponent's favorable ratings. You understand that negative campaigning will cause you to take a hit too, but your aim is to bring your opponent's rating even more.
According the latest Research 2000 tracking polls, McCain's negative campaigning is simply not overpowering Obama's positive momentum.
On 9/7, Obama's net favorable ratio was: Positive 23.
Today, on 9/10, Obama's net favorable ratio has INCREASED to: Positive 26.
On 9/7, McCain's net favorable ratio was: Negative 6.
Today, on 9/10, McCain's net favorable ratio has DECREASED to: Negative 11.
(Palin's net favorable is a horrendous Negative 18!!!)
These are the numbers Team(?) McCain will crunch and will begin to dial the negative rhetoric down soon.
cheers!
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Holy Plummeting Numbers, Batman! Great charts, thanks!
October 10, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
oops. Those polling dates are suppossed to 10/7 and 10/10, respectively... (up all night, what can I say:)
October 10, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
If McCain was acting rational, which he does not appear to be.
October 10, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's not a ratio, it's a differential.
October 10, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll believe it if and when I see it - in any lasting form
October 10, 2008 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
In theory, you are correct. Interestingly, it's worth noting that negative attacks usually drive the defender's negatives up faster than the attacker's, which is why candidates in trouble use them.
Unfortunately, I believe the calendar - and intervening political reality - will say otherwise. If McCain doesn't run on negatives, what else has he got?
Experience? Bad year for "incumbent" campaigns.
Judgment? See: Palin, Sarah.
Bipartisanship? 100% with Dubya in '08.
Honor? This campaign flushes that premise.
Foreign policy? Even PETRAEUS is with Obama on talking to enemies. McCain's got no other crutch.
Economy? Even without the crash, McCain had already demonstrated he had no grip on it.
Environment? Every major endorsing environmental group is behind Obama.
McCain's got nothing left but to drive up base GOP voting and hope that his mudslinging depresses indie turnout.
October 10, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, you forgot to mention our guy Joe! Before the VP debate his net favorable rating was a nicely respectable Positive 18 .......... today he (literally) one-ups Obama with a Positive 27!
It's worth clicking through to the link to see the pretty picture.
October 10, 2008 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink