Obama's Iranian Summit Blunder
Barack Obama's promise to meet with Iran without preconditions has had some unintended consequences.
Whether you believe Bush really intended to put diplomats into Iran or you believe the entire issue is manufactured to embarrass Obama, it's clear that Obama's refusal to unequivocally retract his offer of a summit without preconditions is a mistake.
Although Obama has tried to spin his offer to bring it into line with the position Clinton took in the debate, a review of the video of Obama's answer to a YouTube question makes it clear that he was looking at a picture of Ahmadinejad as he listened to the question. He knew exactly which leader of Iran he was being asked about, and he knew that the question was about a Presidential summit meeting without preconditions.
Obama's failure to explicitly admit that he misspoke and his failure to take an unconditional summit with Iran off the table, has allowed the McCain campaign to use our relations with Iran as a political football. And it has put Joe Biden in the position of having to lie about Obama's record.
Obama needs to put this behind him.
He should assure McCain that he will not meet with Iran at the Presidential level without preconditions and ask McCain to join him in urging President Bush to put direct diplomacy with Iran and an Iranian mission back on the table.
If Obama and McCain can join in a bipartisan effort to bailout the financial system, they can join in a bipartisan effort to avoid a war with Iran.
Whether you believe Bush really intended to put diplomats into Iran or you believe the entire issue is manufactured to embarrass Obama, it's clear that Obama's refusal to unequivocally retract his offer of a summit without preconditions is a mistake.
Although Obama has tried to spin his offer to bring it into line with the position Clinton took in the debate, a review of the video of Obama's answer to a YouTube question makes it clear that he was looking at a picture of Ahmadinejad as he listened to the question. He knew exactly which leader of Iran he was being asked about, and he knew that the question was about a Presidential summit meeting without preconditions.
Obama's failure to explicitly admit that he misspoke and his failure to take an unconditional summit with Iran off the table, has allowed the McCain campaign to use our relations with Iran as a political football. And it has put Joe Biden in the position of having to lie about Obama's record.
Obama needs to put this behind him.
He should assure McCain that he will not meet with Iran at the Presidential level without preconditions and ask McCain to join him in urging President Bush to put direct diplomacy with Iran and an Iranian mission back on the table.
If Obama and McCain can join in a bipartisan effort to bailout the financial system, they can join in a bipartisan effort to avoid a war with Iran.
Advertisement





I don't get it - why is it Obama's fault when diplomacy is the course of action he recommended? It seems to me that Bush is refusing to move forward with diplomacy because John McCain has taken an absolutist stance - and Bush doesn't want to undermine the GOP candidate.
In the larger sense, and Biden spoke to this very well, the president isn't the head of Iran. Iran is a theocracy led by the supreme Ayatollah. You seem a bright fellow - surely you are aware of this? Or do you think that some asshat on YouTube can morph diplomatic reality single-handed? If McCain doesn't acknowledge reality - he should be hammered and hammered, not validated (which your proposal would do).
Basically you are saying that Obama shouldn't advocate any position that is good for America ... because Bush will refuse to implement it for fear of helping Obama? That's ridiculous!
Almost as ridiculous as the thought we'd let McCain off the hook for being tied to BUSH on this. Or that we'd let him off the hook for not knowing who really runs Iran. Most Americans want diplomacy and they can't have it because McCain won't let Bush do it. That's bad for Obama ... how?
But by far, the most absurd thing about this premise is the statement McCain and Obama worked together to craft a bipartisan economic solution. That is the most generous interpretation of McCain's behavior over the last 2 weeks given by ANYONE of either party. If you think McCain would behave any different over Iran you are a fool.
I'm happy to wait a couple of months and let Obama do it right - without jackass McCain screwing the whole thing up.
October 4, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, if I show you a picture of a man and ask if you will meet him without preconditions, I expect you to know who I'm talking about. Dipsydoodle about theocracies may fool the hive, but not the outsiders.
What I said is Obama's foolish offer to hold an unconditional Presidential summit with Iran had politicized negotiations with Iran, allowed McCain to turn negotiations into a political football, and, maybe allowed Bush to game the negotiations and the election. I called for Obama to ask McCain to join him in pressuring Bush to start a diplomatic mission in Iran and not use the Presidential campaign as an excuse.
Of course, to do that, Obama would have to admit that he made a boneheaded rookie error in the Clinton debate.
Apparently, you're comfortable with letting Bush blame Obama for his failure to open a diplomatic mission in Iran. Let's hope we don't need one before late January.
October 4, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I also disagree with this post, but not for the same reasons as illiterate, ugly-looking, half-naked, twitchy, hypocritical, addled and smelly Obamabots like hrebendorf and CVille Dem.
But...
What the heck!
I can't stand to be on the same side of any issue with those diarrhetic, drooling, demented, scabby, penis-flapping crack pimps, so...
I totally agree with Billy Glad.
October 4, 2008 7:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
And I agree not to nuke Antarctica.
October 4, 2008 8:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
The leaders of each country chose different ways to run things. We have to deal with them from where they are coming from. Ahmadinejad is the elected president of Iran. He is not the most powerful leader in the country but he is also not the titular ruler like the Queen of England.
The leaders of Iran chose to use Ahmadinejad as their point man to the world. They give him sufficient power to accomplish that role. We can't say, "Its clear that you are not the leader of your country, we want to meet with Khamenei. Now go, lackey, and fetch him for us."
Biden statement that Ahmadinejad wasn't even the leader of Iran was more silly spin to try to dance away from Obama's statement that he was willing to meet with Ahmadinejad in the first year of his presidency without preconditions.
In the unlikely event that there was a presidential meeting to all extent and purpose it would appear as if two presidents, leaders of their countries, were meeting. When they finished with the public statements preceeding negotiations Obama and his diplomatic staff and Ahmadinejad and the diplomatic staff of Iran would retire into a closed door session. At that point Obama would be the senior decision maker of the american delegation and Ahmadinejad the jr. of the iranian delegation.
When the summit was concluded and they returned to the cameras the two presidents would make their public statements. Just like they were the two leaders of their countries.
October 5, 2008 2:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow. Let's unpack this a bit:
It's clear? How is it clear? It's clear to you perhaps, but you offer no explanation as to how it's clear.
Let's look at your article a bit.
Now there's a solid foreign policy reason (especially according to neocon foreign policy) to stop the diplomatic effort.
It goes on.
So our source is anonymous Bush administration officials. Fool me once, etc.
It continues:
So, even though there's a perfectly good reason (especially from the neocon viewpoint) to halt going forward due to Iran's recent recalcitrance RE:nuclear development, we can also accomplish something for McCain here by leaking that we don't want to do it because we don't want to "inject this into the campaign".
Sound familiar? "I'm suspending my campaign". No, you're not. The world doesn't stop for campaigns and campaigns don't stop for the world. It's all politics all the time. I thought you were smart enough to see that.
Let's see if I have this straight. Despite that it's clear that Obama believes a radical new approach must be taken, he should espouse the Bush line and capitulate his views in order to "join a bipartisan effort to avoid a war with Iran."
Iran won't be starting a war with us anytime soon. They're quite happy with the proxy-war we gave them in Iraq. You should know by now that the Bush administration will have a war with Iran if it chooses. The Strait of Hormuz is crawling with naval vessels at the ready.
Bush will have a wider war if he likes. He also got the headline he wanted:
And you got played. Again.
October 4, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is a thoughtful, well-written comment, and I'm actually happy that CVille Dem and hrebendorf can add a relatively intelligent third "member" to their TPM club, Penis-Flapping Crack Pimps For Obama!
October 4, 2008 7:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's pretty funny, given that his response makes it clear the post went over his head. He ends up by repeating my point that Obama's dumb statement is being used by Bush, then tells me I'm the one being played. Obama is being played. What I can't figure out is what he's being played for. Everyone now agrees that lower level diplomacy is in order. Only Presidential summits are in dispute. Why are they pounding the summit gaffe so hard?
October 4, 2008 9:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
DF's post looks like it was written by an intelligent, literate person, right or wrong, but every post by CVille Dem and hrebendorf was obviously scribbled on an adult diaper and only later posted on the internet by a "trusted adult."
I can't exactly understand what the downside of meeting unconditionally with Ahmadinejad is supposed to be, unless the conditions are something like "no biting."
October 4, 2008 10:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is my take on the story. Americans generally don't place a lot of importance on our president meeting a leader of some small nation like Iran. But for small nations its a huge propaganda victory. It increases the popularity of the government. If the regime is repressive that increased popularity gives them more leave way to crack down on dissidents seeking more freedom with in the country. Opposition elements with in these countries are not without a certain amount of popularity as well, that's their protection. That's why these regimes tend to avoid simply killing them all off. Increase the popularity of the regime and you decrease the relative power of the opposition.
I don't believe there should be a presidential meeting at all in the first year of an Obama presidency. Diplomacy can be conducted by the Secretary of State and the diplomatic corps without a presidential meeting. But at the very least one precondition would be that the president would have a public meeting with the leaders of the opposition as well the the rulers so as to maintain the relative parity between them.
There are other reasons, a presidential meeting gives them a world wide platform to spew their propaganda. A presidential meeting is more important to them as a propaganda victory then to us. We'd be giving away a bargaining chip for free and that's a bad negotiating strategy.
It really wasn't that big an error, just a rookie mistake. Obama should have back tracked the next day but he compounded the error and locked himself in. Just a simple I misunderstood the question with some bullshit as to how and why and he could have put it all behind him.
I guess he was just afraid to admit an error in what was by public perception his weakest area so early in the campaign.
October 5, 2008 1:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Jacob, that comment may look like it was written by an intelligent person, but it would take about 30 seconds to demolish it. I'd rather spend the bandwidth talking to you. As that comment admits, Bush (and McCain) got the headline they wanted. My blog post is about how they got it and what they could potentially do with it. That Obama himself gave them the headline is what the Hive can't accept. I'm sorry. But if you are looking for an intelligent Obamanaut, try Hilary, Cypher, or one of the others down thread. Forget about this one. It's all about prefacing its points with a pompous and condescending remark to make it appear to be saying something.
October 5, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
The post didn't go over my head, Billy. I got what you were trying to say. But your initial dishonest premise and your completely idiotic conclusion override any reasonable points you may have thrown in for flavor. Your skills at fence-sitting are famous, but hardly impressive.
October 5, 2008 5:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Preconditions.
I do not think that word means what you think it means.
It does not mean without preparations. It does not mean without lower level talks first. It does not mean without a prior diplomatic process to set the groundwork. It does mean that you do not talk to, or negotiate with, an enemy by saying the quivalent of, "I will talk to you about giving up your nuclear program only once you have given up your nuclear program," which is essentially the Bush position. Which is, of course, absurd. If the other party has already given up the program in question what is there left to talk about?
Obama made no mistake. His policy is the correct, and reasonable, one. You just fail to understand it.
October 5, 2008 11:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
I guarantee you that the rural Pennsylvanians I just visited two weeks ago also wouldn't get your post, either. All I know from talking with them is that they think McCain is an old fool who's probably much sicker than he's letting on, but will do anything to get the presidency, and that Sarah Palin is the biggest ditz to come down the pike in a long, long time. And no way, no how, could or should she ever come within sight of the White House. These white, hardworking bitter people who cling to their guns have told me they're voting for Obama, because the economic conditions where they live are the most abysmal I've ever seen them (I'm originally from the area).
October 5, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sorry. Are you suggesting PA is somehow in play for McCain? I don't see that at all. I'm much more interested in Colorado. Without Colorado, there is no believable scenario for a McCain win. If Obama closes the Colorado door, the election is history. Know anything about Colorado?
October 5, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
So Bush is just like Palin:
Bush decided to nix diplomacy because he is annoyed at Obama for talkin' about it.
Palin didn't answer questions (and came off looking like a nitwit) because she was annoyed at Katie for asking actual questions.
OH MY GOD! Can we have adults in charge again? Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeze!
Billy, for what you say to be true, Obama would have to have way more power over events than is likely. From that premise, Bush would veto the "bailout" just because Obama voted for it.
October 4, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hell, Ahmadinejad is over here so often he's practically eligible for a green card. He's fully aware of what's going on and what's at stake in this election. Please don't tell you think what Obama says in a Presidential debate doesn't matter. He said it, he's stuck with it until he takes it back. Apparently, not everyone realizes he has been trying to take it back. He needs to bite the bullet and make himself clear. Having a diplomatic mission in Iran would be a big step forward in reducing tension. That should be worth the gamble politically of making sure everyone knows exactly where you stand.
October 4, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama never made a "promise" to meet with anyone.
October 4, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right. The question was, "Would you be willing to..." "Not would you promise..."
Obama said "Yes," He would be willing...
This whole thing has been a ridiculously childish set-up. And for what purpose? To make Obama, who will be a true diplomat, look like a naive wimp at best. The truth simply doesn't back that up, so people make up their own narrative.
Thanks, Billy, for including the link, even though it makes your post a non-starter.
October 4, 2008 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
During the debate, I thought it was painfully obvious what Hillary was doing. But nobody called her on it. Then, the next day, when she went on to criticize Obama for "promising" to meet with these people, I thought, "She can't seriously believe anyone will buy this, can she?" But her supporters DID buy it. And so did members of the press. And when Obama reiterated his position and reminded people what the question was, Hillary came back at him and accused him of trying to weasel out of his "previous" position. Which was not previous at all because HE HADN'T CHANGED HIS POSITION ONE IOTA. The whole thing was a ridiculous farce, cooked up by the Clinton campaign in an attempt to make Obama appear naive and foolish. It's depressing to realize how easily she pulled the wool over peoples' eyes. I mean, this is debate 101. High school level shit. And yet, people fell for it.
October 4, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
RabbitKiity, we been through this. Obama has now said he would not meet with Castro (either one) unless there was a demonstrated movement towards democracy. That's a precondition. Arguing that Obama's position has been consistent is untenable.
October 4, 2008 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
They are swarming today. I always know I've hit on something when these particular ants start swarming. They're the self-appointed thought police. :)
October 4, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do you have a link to that, dijamo? The only thing close to that I can recall was Obama at CANF:
You may have a different comment you are referring to, though?
October 5, 2008 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's not a change of position if you ask me. Too vague. That's why he has to explicitly say that he would not meet at the Presidential level without pre-conditions and give some examples.
October 5, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just went back and watched the video. Did you? I can't imagine how ANYONE could believe that Obama promised anything in his answer. Did you listen to the question? It's in English. In case you're completely fucking deaf, the question is also printed on the screen. Each word has a specific, well-understood meaning. Read. Listen. Pay fucking attention.
Did you happen to notice how Obama answered the question that was asked and Hillary did not? What did Hillary say? "Well I will not promise to meet with these leaders... blah, blah, blah..."
DID ANYONE ASK HER TO PROMISE ANYTHING???? Jesus. This question has been hashed and rehashed. Hillary's answer was non-responsive, and she damn well knew it.
Grow a brain, Billy. And learn how to listen more carefully.
October 4, 2008 2:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hear crickets. Where did Billy go!?
October 4, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Billy won't talk to me. Not directly, anyway. Instead, he stands off in a corner and grumbles or complains to someone else. Personally, I think it's adorable.
October 4, 2008 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
He doesn't have the hive scent. We're taking him to the vats!
October 4, 2008 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary's answer was so freaking dishonest. She kept using the word "promise" over and over even though it wasn't part of the question. Either dishonest, or she's a moron. Take your pick.
October 4, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just read the Yahoo article. That's really great. They don't want to inject politics into the situation, so, since Barack Obama screwed everything up, they're forced to scuttle diplomatic efforts.
Like dangling raw meat in front of a dumb dog. Happy dining, Billy. The Bush administration has made a career off of suckers like you.
October 4, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
This sounds like a very promising solution being proposed by Mr. Glad. In order to get started, Billy, can you please have Senator McCain send Senator Obama the words and music to "bomb bomb Iran" so that he can rehearse for their big joint peace recital.
October 4, 2008 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Still not quite over Clinton coming in second, are you?
October 4, 2008 3:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
The level of credulity is what blows me away. I mean, this statement from the Bush administration is so incredibly transparent. Did Billy truly fall for this sophomoric garbage, or is he just casting about for new reasons to dislike Obama?
October 4, 2008 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
ROFL. Swarm! Swarm!
October 4, 2008 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wimp. Chicken. Bawk, bawk, bawk!
October 4, 2008 4:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Waht?
October 4, 2008 8:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
ROFL! LOL! Your discourse is so pithy!
October 4, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
You should have something done about that lisp. :)
October 4, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Swarm! Sting him!
October 4, 2008 4:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whoa, ease up on the nitro, Hotrod. You just got that thing. Don't want to burn out the clutch on the first spin.
October 4, 2008 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sure I can go slow enough for you to catch up.
October 4, 2008 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL.
October 4, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I forget you're not very well read. Try Hellstrom's Hive.
October 4, 2008 7:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm pretty sure Obama will get right on that, just as soon as McCain admits that he'd be willing to sit down with Spain. Why does John McCain hate Spain?
Personally, if I were President, I wouldn't meet with anyone at all ever unless they brought me a bundt cake.
I think I speak for America when I say that bundt cakes are a precondition we can believe in.
October 4, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just in case your serious. (Or at least as serious as the other puppetheads in the echo chamber.)
A quick wiki look suggests an explanation. I don't agree with McCain's point of view, but I don't find it irrational.
Before he was elected, Zapatero had opposed George W. Bush's policy in the Middle East and had promised to withdraw the Spanish troops from Iraq.
On 12 October 2003, during the Hispanic Day military parade held in Madrid, then presidential candidate Zapatero remained seated when a U.S. Marine Corps honour guard carrying the American flag walked past Zapatero and other VIPs.
Everybody else stood as with the rest of the foreign guest armies representations. He declared afterwards that his action was a protest against the war and certainly not intended as an insult to the American people.
When Zapatero became elected, American troops were instructed by their government not take part during the traditional military parade on the Spanish national holiday in 2004 and in 2005, something which they used to, as both the Spanish and American armies are part of joint humanitarian missions in places like Afghanistan and elsewhere; American troops returned to the military parade in 2006; this time Zapatero, being the Spanish premier, stood.
Zapatero publicly stated his support for John Kerry as a candidate running in the U.S. Presidential election in 2004. After the election took place, winner George W. Bush did not return Zapatero's congratulation phone call, though the White House firmly denied that Bush's intention was to snub the Spanish prime minister. Meanwhile Zapatero has repeatedly insisted that Spain's relations with the United States are good.
Later on, during an official visit to Tunisia shortly after Zapatero was elected, he asked all of the countries with troops in Iraq to withdraw their soldiers. This declaration moved Bush to send a letter expressing discontent to the Spanish premier.
In May 2007, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice officially visited Spain and briefly held talks with Zapatero. Still, the flag incident seemed to linger on, at least in the Republican camp and so presidential nominee John McCain suggested that he would continue President Bush's policy of having cool relations with the Zapatero government, despite having made starkly contrasting statements to the Spanish press earlier this year when he said he looked forward to normalized relations with the NATO ally.
It would not be inconsistent for McCain to say he wouldn't meet with Zapatero.
October 4, 2008 7:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whoop!
Nope, I wasn't really all that serious... then again, I hadn't read much about Zapatero, so thanks for the info.
And to be fair, I guess McCain actually refused to confirm whether he'd meet with Zapatero -- he didn't actually come out and say he wouldn't.
Still, on the broader point regarding whether the President should meet with enemies, etc... I don't think that Obama can change his public stance without paying a pretty hefty political price -- one that, I think, exceeds whatever damage might result from the apparent disconnect between prior and present statements that've already been put out there. He's better off letting it play out the way it already has... which is basically (bogus though it is):
McCain -- 'Obama is reckless and radical, and wants to talk confer legitimacy upon evildoers by having them over for tea and crumpets....'
Obama -- 'John McCain fears diplomacy -- even with our Nato ally Spain, which proves that he's just another stubborn, trigger-happy shoot-first NeoCon with a 20th Century, cold-war mindset...'
October 4, 2008 8:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Funny how one comment can redeem a thread. Thanks. I just don't like the timing of this leak. I'm not sure I understand its implications, but I would feel better if Obama could find a way to say don't use me as an excuse not to put diplomats into Iran right now.
October 4, 2008 8:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Which would be just fine, but that's completely different than what you suggest in your post.
October 5, 2008 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
it's spelled "you're" and ur talking to a puppet.
i agree about the bundt cake. chocolate please.
October 5, 2008 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
If this were, say, August, this would be more of a concern, I think. The reason is that there's more time to flesh this out for Joe Six-pack, and the economy is not the dominant subject.
I see where you're coming from with this viewpoint, but it seems excessively subtle. This isn't going to be nearly enough to help McCain. If this has to be politicized, in fact, it's pretty easy to spin this both ways - which should neutralize any prospective political gain for either side, I think.
October 4, 2008 10:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nobody really cares when candidates play "gotcha" with some less than clear turn of phrase of the opponent. Everybody knows how stupid it really is.
It is really a testimony to the childishness of the political establishment that such things are done over and over again.
Voters understand that Obama adminstration will engage in more diplomacy and McCain will likely start another war.
That is well understood by the general public which has long tuned out the the semantic games.
October 4, 2008 11:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mao, Stalin, Khrushchev, Brezhnev, Milosevic, or Arafat. If Obama goes ahead and meets with any of those bastards, then I will be done with him.
We can not have a leader meeting with such nasty people. It will only give them increased world stature. If Obama meets with those guys, where will it all end up, will he then start sending top level officials to meet with Saddam Hussein, and start sending chemical and biological kits to him.
It is a slippery slope I tell you. You do that, and next thing you know, you end up normalizing relations with Vietnam, and terrorists like Momar Qadafi. We can not allow a President Obama to head down that path.
Head him off at the pass Billy.
October 4, 2008 11:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good point. But I think those summits followed "thaws" in relations. One question I have is what a "thaw" in US/Iranian relations might look like. Obviously, the US putting a diplomatic mission into Iran would be significant gesture. What would the quid pro quo be?
October 5, 2008 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think the "no Preconditions" thing is sort of a semantic canard. The problem is the definition of Preconditions.
Suppose someone wants to meet with Obama, and he's in the middle of a natural disaster? Does "I can't meet with you until New Orleans is OK" count as a "precondition"? How about "I can't meet with you until we finish fighting this war"? Precondition?
How about, simply, "Now is not the best time for us to meet". That's not a precondition.
Obama's opponents spin this as, essentially, Obama abdicating his right to choose when to meet a leader. Now IF that were the only interpretation, they would be right.
However, it can also be viewed as Obama reserving the right to choose when to meet a leader. He could be saying "I will meet leaders when I damn well please".
That being said, I regard it as a semantic debate rather than a policy debate.
From a policy perspective, there really wasn't a good answer to the question. Saying you will always have preconditions is silly as saying you never will (what's the precondition for meeting with Canada or Germany?). Furthermore, "always" and "never" cannot realistically be applied to the fluidity of foreign policy.
When dealing with important issues like nuclear nations, I would prefer my President do the best thing at that instant, rather than be too concerned with a debate line from three years ago.
October 4, 2008 11:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or how about the old Bush/Cheney/McCain pet precondition: We can not meet with you,until you have done everything that we have ordered you to do, and don't you bastards even think about setting any pre-conditions for us.
We are the Lords of The Galaxy, and if we weren't bogged down now in Iraq, with not enough troops or money to pull it off, we would really be the Lords of the Universe, for starters; but, what with that string theory, and stuff, we just might have to become the hedgemony of a multiverse. USA USA USA.
October 5, 2008 12:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is total garbage. McCain has long advocated negotiations and discussion below the presidential level. In fact during the debate he pointed out that Ambassador Crocker has had several meetings with the Iranian ambassador already and he approves of those meetings.
October 5, 2008 3:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
The problem with Obama coming out in favor of opening an Interest Section in Tehran is that it would be seen as a threat to AIPAC's stated interests and premature if done in advance of a peace settlement btwn Israel and Palestine. That would be political suicide for Obama.
If the Bush administration is suggesting that they would be serious about opening an interest section I would bet that it's some sort of bait and switch, 11th hour foreign policy trick. I mean, come on, the Bush administration won't even challenge the Israeli's on their policies towards Hamas!
An Interest Section would mean that we were serious about normalizing relations with Iran, like in Cuba (not that Cuba is a good example of that process.) USINT-Havana has been around for 40 years and our relations are anything but normal. It is so squirrely that there was a non-fraternization policy with local Cubans in place for US Diplomats when we lived there in the early 90's, and buying things outside of state-run stores like fresh fish from a fisherman was illegal.
After we invaded Iraq the Iranians were very open to coming to the table with everything; recognition of Israel, nuclear programs, support for Islamic movements, and they put forward goodwill by helping us with our war effort in Afghanistan. The Bush administration squandered the opportunity and shifted the policy to one of preconditions. That has been a disaster.
Obama didn't promise anything but showed a willingness to negotiate and confront the very real issues in US-Iranian relations. He should stick with that for the time being and hope that Khatami or some other moderate Iranian leader returns to the helm.
October 5, 2008 1:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah. I forgot about AIPAC. But might they not welcome more agressive diplomacy by the US? I can't believe they really want to bomb Iran. Seems like that would just set hopes for peace in the region back to square one.
October 5, 2008 10:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Might they welcome more aggressive diplomacy? Hmmm. Read Miersheimer and Walt. That might answer your question.
October 5, 2008 10:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
This suggestion of an opening an interest station in Tehran was floated by Rice and her DoS allies in June. The Israelis had conniptions as they always do when they smell "appeasement" in the air re Iran.
Nothing ever came of the notion and you can betcher britches that Condi's enemies, the Elliot Abrams neocon faction and the Cheneyites made sure it was stillborn.
This is more about the intra-administration warfare over which sector controls US FP than the election.
Condi lost this battle to create facts on the ground before the Bushie term was up.
I hope that Obama takes full advantage of Condi's (and Colin's) hard-knocks lessons learned doing battle with the players at home and abroad who adhere to the philosophy of negotiations encapsulated in this phrase:
"....... because it could be seen as a reward for Iran's nuclear intransigence"
Pure neocon-ese.
BTW. There is a REAL example of a FP gaffe by someone high up in the Obama camp to critique if one is so inclined. Biden made some inexplicable claims during the debate that have elicited some headscratching among those who heard him and went HUH?
Keywords:
Lebanon, Hezbollah, NATO, France.
Have fun.
October 5, 2008 2:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
(laughs) I've been wondering if that was going to get any play. Just a blip on the screen and then it sank like a stone. I didn't see anything about it on the MSM. One would think a major gaffe like that by a master of foreign policy would have merited some discussion.
This was imo on par with Ford's, "there is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe" comment that many claim lost him the election. But for Biden, nothing.
October 5, 2008 3:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe it wasn't a gaffe. A quick search on the NY times archive yielded a few articles that seem to suggest that there was some discussion of putting NATO troops in Lebanon prior to Israel's invasion.
As head of the Senate FRC Biden certainly would have been involved in these discussions and who knows, perhaps it was is idea and Obama was also on board. It would take someone on the Republican side familiar with the discussions to debunk it...not you.
I don't know how to do the block quotes, but here are bits of the articles.
By CRAIG S. SMITH
Published: July 24, 2006
Israel Weighs Foreign Troops on Border
"Defense Minister Amir Peretz said Israel was interested in a NATO-led force, and the prime minister, Ehud Olmert, spoke of one consisting of European Union members with combat experience and the authority to take control of Lebanon’s border and crossing points.
American officials said they were open to the idea but did not expect American troops to be part of the force. “It’s a new idea, we’ll certainly take it seriously,” John R. Bolton, the American ambassador to the United Nations, told CNN’s “Late Edition.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/24/world/middleeast/24mideast.html?scp=7&sq=biden%20lebanon%20nato&st=cse
And later there was some more discussion of putting a UN peacekeeping mission in with NATO member troops.
By JUDY DEMPSEY
Published: September 14, 2006
After NATO Meeting, No New Troops for Afghanistan
(6 paragraphs in)
"The failed attempts to garner more troops came as new demands have been put on NATO members to provide peacekeepers for a United Nations mission in Lebanon.
Already, several countries have said that they will not send more troops to Afghanistan because they are supplying troops to Lebanon. One is Turkey, which has committed at least 1,000 soldiers to Lebanon. Germany, too, said this week that it would not send extra troops for Afghanistan but instead would send forces for the Lebanon mission."
Another article from 2005 talks about France's willingness to work with the US on NATO deployments
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9A03E4D8103FF936A15753C1A9639C8B63
So I don't think Biden's remarkes were any where near the delusional Ford fantasy that the Soviets didn't dominate eastern europe.
October 5, 2008 6:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
I failed to add the second article link.
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9403EFD61531F937A2575AC0A9609C8B63&&scp=6&sq=biden%20lebanon%20nato&st=cse
October 5, 2008 6:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Abroadabroad.
When I heard Biden's remarks, (after my HUH?), I assumed he meant to say Syria instead of Hezbollah and UNIFIL instead of NATO.
I still think he meant Syria because the notion that he meant Hezbollah would indicate a degree of ignorance rivalling that of McCain. It's impossible to "drive Hezbollah out of Lebanon" unless we get into the business of genocide. France (Chirac) was one of the prime movers in forcing Syria out of Lebanon, along with US and the Saudis.
The NATO business is more confusing and I can only speculate that "I'm a Zionist" Joe did have some conversations with Israel Firster/Israeli operatives who were pushing the idiotic notion that troops mobilized under NATO be deployed to the Blue Line.
There is a vast difference in deploying troops under NATO aside from the fact that Lebanon is not a member. NATO has very different rules of engagement that would allow them to become a proxy army for Israel. I would assume that Biden would know that the Euro-peons would never agree to put their soldiers in a situation that had them taking on Hezbollah and possibly, the Lebanese Army.
Perhaps Biden's NATO references were a coded "shout-out" of sorts?
I remain puzzled.
October 5, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
NATO is in Afghanistan, and that country is not a part of NATO, so you are a little late with that cop out. It was The Republicans that decided to use NATO outside of NATO countries, so stop being so dishonest.
October 5, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
lally, it used to piss me off when you did that, but I've come to appreciate it. :)
October 5, 2008 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Billy.
Party ID is not THE defining factor when it comes to my views on American foreign policy.
The political affiliations of those seeking to control the FP directions we take are also rather peripheral to the players themselves, truth be known.
But, is it more likely that an Obama administration will give a greenlight to policy iniatives I favor such as negotiations between Israel and Syria?
Yes.
October 5, 2008 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sorry Billy, but I think the fact that this has become one of your pet issues is blinding you to how this will be interpreted by most.
This:
is nonsense. I'm impressed at whoever came up with it, it's such nonsense.
This, is much more likely the way it will play:
For Obama to change positions now would be ultimately foolish, for the reasons the puppet mentioned above, and because a majority of Americans agree with him.
As far as this being a political response to what Obama said back in February? I don't buy it. I think it's a response to what he said last week: "I just have to make this general point that the Bush administration, some of Senator McCain's own advisers all think this is important, and Senator McCain appears resistant." or "And, you know, the Bush administration has come to recognize that it hasn't worked, this notion that we are simply silent when it comes to our enemies."
As a matter of fact, I think McCain should put politics aside and join Obama in calling for Bush to put diplomacy back on the table. After all, he'd rather lose the election than win the war, right?
But politics aside for a second. I remember, when I was a little girl, I actually believed that governing was something that happened outside of politics, without thought to the next election. I actually believed that if people did the right thing, they would continue to be re-elected. Childhood. It's a funny thing.
October 5, 2008 8:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
he'd rather lose the election than win the war, right?
Hmm. Obviously, I mean lose the war.
October 5, 2008 8:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
I knew what you meant. I spent a lot of my adult life using the power of an office to extend the power of the office and hold on to the office for one candidate or another. Staying in office is a lot different from getting into office in the first place. You have a lot more to work with.
The reason I lock into certain issues is they seem to me to be all the Republicans have to work with. I think Iran, Iraq and the emerging change in strategy in Afghanistan and the Pakistan/Afghanistan border region are things they have the power to manipulate in their favor.
Energy petroleum may be another one.
Anyway, those are the things I look for.
October 5, 2008 10:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're right.
I look for military actions or stirring things up. All McCain has to do then is stand there.
October 5, 2008 11:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
I shouldn't have phrased it that way. What I really mean is that you've been so strongly on one side of this that it colors your interpretation of this development. As it does to all of us, of course. I just have doubts that the so-called swing voters, if they even know of it, will interpret it as not wanting to meddle in the election for sake of not looking like they're helping McCain.
What I'm not sure about though, is your concern over this development political or more in a real-world effect sense?
Do you think that Bush would put diplomacy back on the table even if Obama were to change his position? I don't, for one.
October 5, 2008 3:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
He said at the debate he didn't mean at the presidential level.
October 5, 2008 10:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you're talking about the original debate, he really didn't. But should he have had to? I mean, how freakin' clueless are people? Since the debate, it's been painful to watch as he's been forced to paint the whole thing out in a palette of about three primary colors in order to clue the clueless in. But it's depressing to know that that's necessary. I expect most Republicans to be as dumb as a bag of doorknobs, but Democrats too? Depressing.
October 5, 2008 10:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree that Obama made a mistake. The question now is how to handle it politically at this moment before the election. Since Obama's perceived weakness is foreign policy and there is still the chance of a "surprise" in the military area, if I were his advisor I wouldn't suggest copping to the mistake. I'd be breezy. He's good at that.
Meantime, the United States has sold new military equipment to Taiwan and the Chinese aren't happy. We'll be seeing a lot of this I think. I hope that Axelrod is working up solid responses to military issues. It would be a big mistake to let Obama wing all of it. The answers should be prepared.
October 5, 2008 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
One of the more interesting things about posting in the Hive is how easily the important points in a post get lost. If you smear the points with Hive scent, the Hive can hear them.
For example. Bush is planning to attack Iran, and he's using Obama as an excuse to avoid diplomacy. I hope Obama tells him everybody agrees low level talks are a good idea. Don't try to use me as an excuse for not starting them.
Of course, the problem with that is it actually helps separate McCain from Bush.
But allowing Bush to create the impression that diplomacy has broken down when it hasn't even started could be dangerous at this point.
October 5, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought Bush was going to start something with Iran. Now I'm not so sure. I'm more concerned with what's going on in Pakistan right now. And rather amazed that the developments still seem to be flying under the radar of the media.
October 5, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did you notice that the poll seems to have left out the "without preconditions" part? You think that was an accident? Maybe McCain needs to do a better job of defining preconditions. I wonder what would happen if he floated a couple in his ads, interviews, and in the debates? For example, no Presidential meetings until Iran accepts Israel's right to exist. No Presidential meetings until Iran stops killing American troops in Iraq. I'm not saying I'd agree with those. I'm just curious what the effects would be on public opinion if McCain really pressed the preconditions and challenges Obama to accept them as "preparations."
October 5, 2008 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Incidentally, I posted about an article in The Guardian on Ahmadinejad's statement in which he agrees to recognise Israel as a part of a legitimate two-state solution.
I am guessing that going for specific preconditions would be a loser for one simple reason: no-one has done so yet. The Clinton campaign did not, nor has McCain up to this point. There must be a reason for this. I am sure you will disagree, but my assessment is that this is so because the only way the controversy has managed to stay afloat is precisely because of the muddying between "precondition" and "preparation."
Which preconditions could there be?
* Recognise state of Israel?
* Stop killing Americans in Iraq? (Though I think this would need some heavier proof first)
* Cease all nuclear energy programs including buying materials and technology?
* Dismantle the Revolutionary Guard?
* Require a real secular government?
Also, should our side not also make some kind of concessions? Or is it just the other guys? Must Israel, for example, first recognise a Palestinian state? Or would the U.S. need to arrange to provide replacement energy for the loss of the nuclear program?
Then, with the preconditions agreed to, what would the actual meeting be about? Tea?
October 5, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your first comment forfeited your right to ever have a conversation with me. Please don't waste my time with your Hive sign. I can't abide rudeness in a man. I certainly won't abide it in a boy.
October 6, 2008 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
No, I didn't catch that. Good point. But I'm in agreement with you on the further discussion of preconditions/preparation. I think it would be much more productive than the conversation thus far, which has essentially been a game of gotcha-who-said-what-when circle. I'm not holding my breath waiting for it though.
October 5, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I understand your point that Obama's "without precondition" statement is a gift to his opponent that keeps on giving. But the "gaffe" is not without a benefit to Obama. It has McCain reiterate the Bush line that diplomacy should start when the other party agrees to all of one's demands.
While I appreciate that it would put McCain in a certain awkward position if Obama performed the "bipartisan" challenge you propose, wouldn't the McCain camp just seize upon the change of position as an opportunity to vilify Obama?
October 5, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Again.
My premise is that this whole business is a pre-emptive strike by the neocon/Cheneyites against the Rice faction aimed at preventing the establishment of facts on the ground in Tehran :
"U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice says the Bush administration is still considering setting up a diplomatic mission in Iran.
Rice refuted an Associated Press report that the administration had decided to hand the issue to its successor. She told reporters that Washington continues to look at the idea. "
http://voanews.com/english/2008-10-05-voa7.cfm
October 5, 2008 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Even more reason for Obama to jump in on the side of the mission.
October 5, 2008 3:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nope. Not now. It's their fight at and below the political radar for the time being. For Obama to do so would invite attacks of the "appeaser of our terrist enemies who want a 2nd HOLOCAUST!!!" nature.
Too much nuance required.
Unless, of course, Brokaw "finds" a question(er) that/who addresses it directly.......
I think it more likely that a question "comes up" regarding Biden's puzzling Hezbollah/NATO claims. This issue appears to be stirring up more chum among the DC/NY thinktanker FP wonker types and it provides more gotcha potential.
October 5, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK, lets try this again:
This thread is about a complete NON-ISSUE in the general election.
Nobody cares about semantic "gotchas" in this election cycle.
We tried the gun, now people are willing to give diplomacy a chance. Obama is universaly recognized as someone who will use more diplomacy than McCain. End of story. Obama wins this argument, or as many points as it is worth in this election. Nobody is really interested as to how it is technically accomplished - people want results, not process details. It could be a really hot seminar topic at the Council on Foreign Relations or at the Foreign Affairs round table, but it is silly to discuss something like that as a live electorate issue.
Now, people who think it is "naive" to meet with the Dinner Jacket, Zapatero or the Russkies, we should just bomb them instead will not vote for Obama anyway, for many other reasons. It's just that there aren't that many of them in this election cycle. Hopefully.
October 5, 2008 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
When you say something is a semantic "gotcha" you imply there is no real difference between Obama's position and McCain's. I think there is. If the difference is not an issue, it's because people don't "understand" it, meaning it is open to be defined by one side or the other.
"Obama is universaly recognized as someone who will use more diplomacy than McCain."
If the McCain camp lets that stand, they're not very smart, are they?
October 5, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
It doesn't work like that. The electorate is not a blank piece of paper that the campaigns can simply "write" their definitions.
On this issue, the main point is that Obama favors more diplomacy while McCaine favors more force. Full stop.
The public gets this. This issue has already been defined, and not amount of semantic posturing can change that in the public's mind in time to influence the election.
Now, a lot of people back McCaine on this, though clearly not a majority. On the other hand , the current economic meltdown clearly favors Obama.
The current polling clearly reflects failure of McCain's attempts to "define" Obama as dangerously naive and, today, a step away from treason.
However, it is well worth keeping in mind that Obama needs a clear 5+% advantage going into the election to actually secure a victory.
October 5, 2008 9:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain told a hardliner, influential GOP Christian (sects matter) Lebanese American that "he would drive Hezbollah out of Lebanon". That's a military impossibility short of genocide. Period. Shows how much he fucking knows about it.
No one, not even the Israelis (with their Lebanese Shiite allies) were able to "drive Hezbollah out" during the times they were invading/occupying portions of Lebanon. Hezbollah evolved over 20+ years and forced the IDF withdrawl in 2000.
Again, Biden's comment only makes any kind of sense if he misspoke and substitued Hezbollah for Syria.
You are trying to turn oranges into apples.
The specific potential gotcha I mentioned, Biden's debate booboo(?) , relates to the CW that his FP credentials somehow shore up Obama in that arena.
Can it be exploited by the McCain camp? Maybe, but for the vast majority of Americans, it would require some clever wordsmithing in order to simplify a complex issue most know next to nothing about. Nor do the voters care.
Are they adept enough to use it effectively? I don't know.
October 5, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink