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Ode to the Poll Obsessed: A Cautionary Tale
Okay, so I admit it. I am poll obsessed.
I start each day on Kos with the RS2000 poll and summary of the day prior polls (a truly excellent posting).
I know almost to the minute when to check (around 9:15 am) for Rasmussen and Gallup (around 1:05 pm).
I realize I am not the only one. Some of you out there may share this addiction. Tell tale signs include checking your Blackberry every five minutes to see if any new polls have been posted, following Pollster's comments to get the inside info on a poll's accuracy, following the specific of Nate Silverman's modeling algorithm's, and creating your own Electoral Map on RCP (sorry it does not really save what you create).
Like an alcoholic we have many reasons why we drink from the polling status bottle. I need to check because Barack is behind, can he turn it around? I need to check because Barack is ahead, can he keep it up? I need to check on a specific state because it is in play. I need to check on how many states are no longer in play.
You get the drift.
There is ALWAYS some reason to check the polls.
I like the feeling of knowing that of all the people in the room I am the one with the most current and comprehensive polling picture in my head. This weekend I provided assurance to my daughter's college roommate here in Ohio by taking her through all the polls and projections...assuring her that yes Barack is starting to pull away ...and no, Palin's President Barby imitation at the debate is not playing well.
So I was feeling pretty full of myself when we walked into Obama headquarters in Elyria,to join other volunteers going out to go canvass.
"Hi, I am from Massachusetts. My daughter (not the one in college in OH, her twin who just graduated from a school back east) and I are here to volunteer."
"Great!" said Ben, the local Obama coodinator.
As he began to pass out the walk lists, I engaged my fellow canvassers in campaign small talk.
"Seen the latest polls?" I asked.
Several shook their heads.
"Ten point leads all the way around. Barack has reached the big 5-0 in almost all the tracking polls..."
Ben interrupted me.
"We don't watch the polls." The self-satisfied smile was erased from my face. Ben went on. "We know it is going to be close. Obama is running a different kind of campaign in Ohio. This is the best organization this state has ever seen in a national campaign. Kerry turned out record tallies in all the traditionally democratic districts...and lost by 118,000 votes. We are contesting every ward. We need every vote."
With that, Ben went through our instructions for the day.
I listened, noting the early voting opportunities, getting a sense of the neighborhoods we would be walking.
But I also was thinking...thinking about polls and people.
There are two kinds of people I thought:
The ones that watch the polls.
And the ones that move them.
Then I wrote this blog and read it to my daughters.
They liked it, but quickly pointed out there is at least one other kind of person. The one who is not following this election at all.
So now it's off to another day in the neighborhoods of Elyria, Ohio...in search of those yet to be engaged and lock in the votes that are going to lock down an Obama victory.
Yes we can!
I start each day on Kos with the RS2000 poll and summary of the day prior polls (a truly excellent posting).
I know almost to the minute when to check (around 9:15 am) for Rasmussen and Gallup (around 1:05 pm).
I realize I am not the only one. Some of you out there may share this addiction. Tell tale signs include checking your Blackberry every five minutes to see if any new polls have been posted, following Pollster's comments to get the inside info on a poll's accuracy, following the specific of Nate Silverman's modeling algorithm's, and creating your own Electoral Map on RCP (sorry it does not really save what you create).
Like an alcoholic we have many reasons why we drink from the polling status bottle. I need to check because Barack is behind, can he turn it around? I need to check because Barack is ahead, can he keep it up? I need to check on a specific state because it is in play. I need to check on how many states are no longer in play.
You get the drift.
There is ALWAYS some reason to check the polls.
I like the feeling of knowing that of all the people in the room I am the one with the most current and comprehensive polling picture in my head. This weekend I provided assurance to my daughter's college roommate here in Ohio by taking her through all the polls and projections...assuring her that yes Barack is starting to pull away ...and no, Palin's President Barby imitation at the debate is not playing well.
So I was feeling pretty full of myself when we walked into Obama headquarters in Elyria,to join other volunteers going out to go canvass.
"Hi, I am from Massachusetts. My daughter (not the one in college in OH, her twin who just graduated from a school back east) and I are here to volunteer."
"Great!" said Ben, the local Obama coodinator.
As he began to pass out the walk lists, I engaged my fellow canvassers in campaign small talk.
"Seen the latest polls?" I asked.
Several shook their heads.
"Ten point leads all the way around. Barack has reached the big 5-0 in almost all the tracking polls..."
Ben interrupted me.
"We don't watch the polls." The self-satisfied smile was erased from my face. Ben went on. "We know it is going to be close. Obama is running a different kind of campaign in Ohio. This is the best organization this state has ever seen in a national campaign. Kerry turned out record tallies in all the traditionally democratic districts...and lost by 118,000 votes. We are contesting every ward. We need every vote."
With that, Ben went through our instructions for the day.
I listened, noting the early voting opportunities, getting a sense of the neighborhoods we would be walking.
But I also was thinking...thinking about polls and people.
There are two kinds of people I thought:
The ones that watch the polls.
And the ones that move them.
Then I wrote this blog and read it to my daughters.
They liked it, but quickly pointed out there is at least one other kind of person. The one who is not following this election at all.
So now it's off to another day in the neighborhoods of Elyria, Ohio...in search of those yet to be engaged and lock in the votes that are going to lock down an Obama victory.
Yes we can!
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