The giddy excitement of Democrats waiting for the Palin train wreck at tomorrow's debate has reached a pitch that we haven't seen since...well, since a month ago prior to the Republican Convention.  And we made the same mistake then.  We underestimated Palin's appeal.  If I were the Obama team I would be extremely worried about this event.

It's very easy to believe that the majority of the public sees things exactly your way.  I was sure after seeing previews for Meet the Spartans that there wasn't a chance in hell any rational person would subject themselves to that type of punishment.  But they did.  It made over 100 million.  Well over.  Perceptions vary greatly depending upon what you want to see in something.  For Palin supporter's, it's all about her.  They like her lack of experience, they like her hokie nature.  They like that she's this simple gal from Alaska with an accent a bunch of kids.  These are women who are sick of having been told that Hillary Clinton is the independent woman's archetype.  They see Palin as representing who they are.

Nobody expects much from Palin tomorrow.  In fact, they expect so little that nobody is even bothering to wonder what her strategy is.  That might be fine if she were debating somebody with the steady cool of Barrack Obama, but she's debating Joe Biden, and let's face it.  He isn't the brightest Crayon in the box when he speaks.  He's kind of a jabberwocky.  If I were coaching Palin I would tell her to give short answers, to allow Biden to dominate, and to pick one key social subject to wait for to strike a blow on.  And that's all it would take.

It doesn't matter if Palin answers in hums and josana's, if she gets one good shot in that's all it will take to rile her base up again.  They don't care about the economy, they care about her.  They don't care about Pakistan, they care about her.  In a way, it's kind of like the movie Rocky.  If she proves she can sustain until the end, even if she gets banged up, it will be considered a moral victory for her group.

The bailout is going to stop dominating the 24 News cycle very soon.  This leaves a huge gap in issues for Palin to squeeze through with a victory tomorrow night, and would create the exact same condition for the shift in polls that saw McCain on top for two weeks.  Seriously, stop underestimating Palin.