Q-PAC POLLS A SEISMIC SHIFT IN FL, PA, OH
The Q-Pac polls show a seismic shift in the electoral map, but what they might also indicate could be even more remarkable.
They were taken in FL, PA, and OH, three of the demographically oldest states in the union. And McCain has been doing well among older white voters.
The polls where taken after the debate, where Obama played it smart STRATEGICALLY, by not rising to the bait and being polite, calm, and respectful. He ignored McCain's provocative TACTICS, and remained that nice young man who stood his ground and spoke confidently, and in simple, declarative sentences. Old folks - and those of us who appreciate manners and civility - loved that. Obama didn't win them over last week, but he suddenly became much more acceptable.
Then Monday, everyone saw their retirement accounts take a hit when the market plunged. And they saw the biggest bank failure since the Depression. Is there anyone out there who doesn't think those two events didn't resonate among the children of the Depression? When the market crashed and the bank failed, it seems older voters reacted first.
These three polls from senior-rich states indicate that Obama has finally broken through in that 60-plus white demographic. If other polls show that, it will be game-changing, indeed.
It cannot be a coincidence that - immediately following the first debate and the bailout fiasco - three key states with heavy senior demographics all shifted in lockstep toward Obama.
McCain rolled the dice last week on the debate and the bailout - and it came up snake eyes. His only solace here is that there's still more than a month to go. There probably will be a bailout, and some of those 401Konverts will switch back to the GOP. But Obama seems to have broken through in a key demographic here, and it seems like the tectonic plates have shifted this past week.
They were taken in FL, PA, and OH, three of the demographically oldest states in the union. And McCain has been doing well among older white voters.
The polls where taken after the debate, where Obama played it smart STRATEGICALLY, by not rising to the bait and being polite, calm, and respectful. He ignored McCain's provocative TACTICS, and remained that nice young man who stood his ground and spoke confidently, and in simple, declarative sentences. Old folks - and those of us who appreciate manners and civility - loved that. Obama didn't win them over last week, but he suddenly became much more acceptable.
Then Monday, everyone saw their retirement accounts take a hit when the market plunged. And they saw the biggest bank failure since the Depression. Is there anyone out there who doesn't think those two events didn't resonate among the children of the Depression? When the market crashed and the bank failed, it seems older voters reacted first.
These three polls from senior-rich states indicate that Obama has finally broken through in that 60-plus white demographic. If other polls show that, it will be game-changing, indeed.
It cannot be a coincidence that - immediately following the first debate and the bailout fiasco - three key states with heavy senior demographics all shifted in lockstep toward Obama.
McCain rolled the dice last week on the debate and the bailout - and it came up snake eyes. His only solace here is that there's still more than a month to go. There probably will be a bailout, and some of those 401Konverts will switch back to the GOP. But Obama seems to have broken through in a key demographic here, and it seems like the tectonic plates have shifted this past week.
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you pointed out correctly that the older folks are wishy washy at best....today obama may begrudingly look palatable to them, but the slighest provocation will have them squarely back in mccain's sinking ship because they identify more with mccain and really want to be able to support mccain...identity politics is what keeps voters going against their insterest year after year...it works!!!
younger voters, larger AA and minority voters collectively with open-minded white voters, particularly women, will have to put obama over the top...i think we will...
October 1, 2008 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree that many, many of the older voters are, as you say, wishy-washy at best about Obama.
And I also agree that more of them identify with McCain - the war hero who served his country, and the guy who shared similar life experiences.
No question those who just switched to Obama may well switch back, and the Dems shouldn't think for a minute that these are solid votes.
The tectonics have shifted. But that's what tectonic plates do. And they have also been known to shift back.
October 1, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink