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Roubini's calling it: Depression, 10 Years, L shaped.
I have to say, Nouriel Roubini is a pleasure to read -- given the subject matter... here's the latest, it's not getting better.
The world is at severe risk of a global systemic financial meltdown and a severe global depression.
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini
The world is at severe risk of a global systemic financial meltdown and a severe global depression.
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini
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You are right to point to Roubini's latest piece. But your title is absurdly irresponsible and misleading. Roubini said only that there is a rising risk of an L-shaped depression:
At this point the recession train has left the station; the financial and banking crisis train has left the station. The delusion that the U.S. and advanced economies contraction would be short and shallow – a V-shaped six month recession – has been replaced by the certainty that this will be a long and protracted U-shaped recession that may last at least two years in the U.S. and close to two years in most of the rest of the world. And given the rising risk of a global systemic financial meltdown, the probability that the outcome could become a decade long L-shaped recession – like the one experienced by Japan after the bursting of its real estate and equity bubble – cannot be ruled out.
October 10, 2008 7:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
My point with Roubini's stuff (like his February 2008 piece 12-Steps to Financial Disaster http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/242290) is that if the checks/balances/corrections aren't put in place, his consequences play out.
His work is the most appropriate I've found on the financial crisis over the last few weeks. So when he says that that's where it's heading, it's heading there unless radical things are done. And so far, we're not seeing radical things being done, so it's heading there, so he's called it, so we've been warned.
October 10, 2008 10:30 AM | Reply | Permalink