« China unveils stimulus package with more than $585 billion to jump-start economy | David Seaton's Blog | Yet more reality »
Reality check
Those who think that they have just voted to legalize Utopia (and I
hardly exaggerate when I say this; have you been reading the moist and
trusting comments of our commentariat?) are preparing for a
disillusionment that I very much doubt they will blame on themselves. Christopher Hitchens - Slate

There are many who still believe that history is made from the biographies of "great men", when in fact political reality is the product of the interacting forces generated by the natural conflict of interests of the sum total of the world's inhabitants who press against each other individually and collectively in their struggle to obtain some acceptable result... Some groups, notably the wealthy and the powerful press more than others, but the total interaction is infinitely complex and individuals have little effect on its outcome.
For a long time, many of the most scientific political thinkers were sure that the synthesis of all these conflicts would lead inevitably to a result that would benefit humanity and so the process was called "progress". Today most would agree that we are moving somewhere, but nobody knows really where, and almost no one thinks that we will ever "arrive", or if we did that we would be much pleased with the result.
We are talking about a process.
Truly no man or woman or woman living is above or outside this process.
Barack Obama is a product of the same social and political process that produced and elected Eisenhower (To go back any further than Eisenhower, before the days of television is to engage in political archaeology), JFK, LBJ, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, G.H. W. Bush, Clinton and... has elected and reelected, George W. Bush.
Many seem to feel that Barack Obama has been anointed more than elected and that he is somehow absolved of the same law of gravity that weighed upon his predecessors, illustrious and otherwise.
The major difference between Obama and his predecessors is not his color or his intelligence, it is the greatly diminished power that he will inherit.
Just as it is a very different thing to be the CEO of General Motors today then it was when "Engine Charlie" Wilson declared that what was "good for General Motors is good for the USA" (and by extension the world) so it too is a very different thing to be President of the USA today then it was in the Reagan period.
It's another world.
At the end of WWII the United States was "the last man standing".
At the end of the Cold War, the USA was the unquestioned hegemon.
That has all changed.
Not only is the USA now flat broke, its only unquestioned superiority, its massive military power, is proving ineffective in producing favorable and predictable outcomes.
Another massive change is that the Anglo-American version of capitalism is being seriously questioned, this, in economic terms, is as if Pope Benedict had hung out a "gone fishin'" sign on Saint Peter's, a great vacuum exists where recently there stood a temple of legitimacy.
Everyone around the world is pleased that Obama, right down to his color, is nothing like Bush, but that doesn't mean that the hard men and women who manage things are so pleased that they will forget for a moment what their objectives are: nor will the stream of events open like the waters of the Red Sea to Obama's "soft power".
I think everything will be sweetness and light with Obama exactly until - and not one moment longer - he tries to show "leadership": meaning trying to push people to go where they don't want to go.
At that moment he will be just one more president of a bankrupt USA that loses wars and destroys shareholder value.
http://seaton-newslinks.blogspot.com/
There are many who still believe that history is made from the biographies of "great men", when in fact political reality is the product of the interacting forces generated by the natural conflict of interests of the sum total of the world's inhabitants who press against each other individually and collectively in their struggle to obtain some acceptable result... Some groups, notably the wealthy and the powerful press more than others, but the total interaction is infinitely complex and individuals have little effect on its outcome.
For a long time, many of the most scientific political thinkers were sure that the synthesis of all these conflicts would lead inevitably to a result that would benefit humanity and so the process was called "progress". Today most would agree that we are moving somewhere, but nobody knows really where, and almost no one thinks that we will ever "arrive", or if we did that we would be much pleased with the result.
We are talking about a process.
Truly no man or woman or woman living is above or outside this process.
Barack Obama is a product of the same social and political process that produced and elected Eisenhower (To go back any further than Eisenhower, before the days of television is to engage in political archaeology), JFK, LBJ, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, G.H. W. Bush, Clinton and... has elected and reelected, George W. Bush.
Many seem to feel that Barack Obama has been anointed more than elected and that he is somehow absolved of the same law of gravity that weighed upon his predecessors, illustrious and otherwise.
The major difference between Obama and his predecessors is not his color or his intelligence, it is the greatly diminished power that he will inherit.
Just as it is a very different thing to be the CEO of General Motors today then it was when "Engine Charlie" Wilson declared that what was "good for General Motors is good for the USA" (and by extension the world) so it too is a very different thing to be President of the USA today then it was in the Reagan period.
It's another world.
At the end of WWII the United States was "the last man standing".
At the end of the Cold War, the USA was the unquestioned hegemon.
That has all changed.
Not only is the USA now flat broke, its only unquestioned superiority, its massive military power, is proving ineffective in producing favorable and predictable outcomes.
Another massive change is that the Anglo-American version of capitalism is being seriously questioned, this, in economic terms, is as if Pope Benedict had hung out a "gone fishin'" sign on Saint Peter's, a great vacuum exists where recently there stood a temple of legitimacy.
Everyone around the world is pleased that Obama, right down to his color, is nothing like Bush, but that doesn't mean that the hard men and women who manage things are so pleased that they will forget for a moment what their objectives are: nor will the stream of events open like the waters of the Red Sea to Obama's "soft power".
I think everything will be sweetness and light with Obama exactly until - and not one moment longer - he tries to show "leadership": meaning trying to push people to go where they don't want to go.
At that moment he will be just one more president of a bankrupt USA that loses wars and destroys shareholder value.
http://seaton-newslinks.blogspot.com/
Advertisement





Well of course you believe this. Because, only if all of this horrible stuff happens will you achieve some small measure of vindication in all the other dour, dire, cynical, small-minded predictions you've been spewing for the last year or two that have turned out to be completely wrong.
November 11, 2008 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, one cannot help but wonder why Seaton continues to pollute the hallowed halls of TPM with his bloviations. Why cannot he find a conservative or libertarian website to infest with his whiny-ass ruminations? I have seen no sign that anyone here particular agrees with or enjoys his peculiarly malignant insights, but perhaps he is a mean-spirited bastard whose primarily pleasure is pissing on the parade of others.
November 11, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
He's not mean. He's just boring and redundant and he has no life. And in order to prove to himself that he's not completely powerless and utterly inconsequential, he comes here to get a reaction. It's not a great reaction, but hey--he'll take whatever he can get.
November 11, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry Formerly, most of it already has happened.
November 11, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
David, I'm beginning to suspect you may be a glass half empty kinda guy. ;)
November 11, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am more a "look at all the spilled water on the floor, somebody get a mop" type of guy, Hillary.
November 11, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary,
If you want a really "half empty" take, think about California, which went to Obama 61% to 37%. California's prop 8 is the giveaway on how fragile this victory was and how difficult it is to read or administer.
November 11, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
David - I just took the time to go back and read some of your early posting from Feb '08 forward. While I think you area pretty good writer you lack much depth.
You cannot see beyond your own narrow view, of this country, Obama and the people who elected him. You assume he is lacking and by extension those of us who voted for him are equally lacking. And while you may think what you write is painfully obvious let me remind you . . .
William SafireAnd I have to agree with Hillarym99 your cynicism has made you a glass half empty person.
November 11, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think Obama is lacking or the people who vote for him either. I think the American presidency is lacking, I think the American system is lacking.
I think that people everywhere, not just in the USA, are desperate to believe that Obama is going to make a huge difference, I don't think so. The more I read and experience the less I believe in personalities and "stories" and the more I believe in the play of all the multitude of forces and interests. I think that the USA was nearly as crippled by the cold war as the USSR and hasn't adjusted yet to its end.
I certainly am not a libertarian or a conservative. I am in favor of classic, social democracy of the Scandinavian variety, with lots of regulations, high taxes, income redistribution and bureaucracy.
November 11, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Blah, blah, blah. David, you are relentlessly boring.
November 11, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bless you Hrebs, you never seem to miss any of my posts!
November 11, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
If he's so boring, why are you commenting? And what interest is it to other readers that you think he is boring? It's your apparent need to post opinions of other posters that's really boring. Why do you continue to do that? What good is it to readers? Why do you think we want or need to know that you hate David Seaton?
November 11, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why do you think I care?
November 11, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Frankly, Hrebs, if we were in second grade, I would think you had a crush on me.
November 11, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I rest my case. You're here for no good reason.
November 11, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm here to please myself, but what I can't figure out is why you hang out in my posts. You are welcome to, it being a free country, but I don't quite get why you find me so irresistible.
November 11, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
See, here's where your massive ego gets you into trouble. But it's all about you, isn't it?
November 11, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Am I in trouble? I'm sitting in my study happily tapping away at my pooter as night falls in Madrid, I've had a nice day, lunched well, chatted and napped with my darling wife, played with our cat, am reading "The Hakawati", which is a lovely book, and even you, you squirrelly whatever are fun. Trouble? Bring 'em on!
November 11, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Got this link from David Kurtz right here at TPM
Now, would somebody please tell me if this glass is "half full or half empty"?
November 11, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nice try, but champion doomer James Kunstler paints an even gloomier picture:
November 11, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, but I never could hope to match Kunstler. I actually don't see things as darkly as he does. I think Americans are nothing if not resilient, hard working and inventive. When they finally give up "hope", I'm sure they will dig themselves out of all this shit.
November 11, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I do see things as fairly gloomy, but I think Obama is the sort of pragmatist that might see us through it.
November 11, 2008 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hope you are right.
November 11, 2008 3:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ooh, David! The sun is setting on this post! I can see it dipping below the horizon! In another fifteen minutes it will be gone! Quick! Time to post another!
32 comments and one recommend. Not bad, old man. Very impressive.
November 11, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I'm off to dinner and curling up with "The Hakawati". It's been fun, see you around.
November 11, 2008 3:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
David, thanks for the post. We should all understand that Obama is no messiah. I think people here understand that. Yet we should savor the results a bit before we head out for some serious work, and for some that means poking fun at the other guys. Too much "tapas" and not enough "santosha" makes change a dull boy.
My analysis is more sanguine. The US is not broke, though it is certainly deep in debt. The debt levels are not unprecedented (take a look at the debt after the depression); I sincerely hope it doesn't take a world war, mass death and starvation to get out of it. But a shift in spending priorities to building or caring for people and things rather than destroying them takes an economy that is tilted down, and tips it back up, and that is something that Obama can execute as the President and the democrats can legislate.
"We are talking about a process." Yes, and a collective one at that. With the whole planet involved. So how do you get people to change? Well, if one doesn't live with integrity to begin with, mere words of change are as light as a feather. So far, Obama seems to have integrity as well as restraint. If his actions in office match, he will gain more.
Though he may not be able to push people where they don't want to go, great leaders don't force them, but incentives are always fair. For those that simply won't go, leaders go anyway, by example, and leave a trail and a seed.
November 11, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
National debt is around 1/3 of GDP. At the time of the Depression, it was 120% of GDP.
David just likes being unhappy, and wants company.
November 11, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is not the "Great Depression", yet. What we have is the first fully globalized recession/maybe leading to depression. As some have noted the only way out of the Great Depression was WWII. We really don't know where we are headed, we won't know when we have arrived and maybe we wont even know where we have been.
What we are seeing is the implosion of the Reagan/Clinton formula for global prosperity.
Probably having its economic model clap out is more damaging to America's long term reputation than losing wars and will surely have much more damaging consequences.
November 12, 2008 3:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Those to be pitied are not Americans who can evaluate David's writings from reality-based POVs, it's the poor shmucks in Spain who read El Mundo thinking that surely, he must have a clue because he did live there once upon a time.......
Speaking of the Department of "moist and trusting comments"; International division, I ran across this blog from Tel Aviv that features the reactions of Israel's media to Obama's election.
http://lisagoldman.net/2008/11/10/a-view-on-obama-from-tel-aviv/
Lisa Goldman presents the front pages from several Israel's Hebrew publications. She includes my personal favorite example that features two veteran members of the commentariat from Israel's Channel 10:
"Raviv Druker and Ofer Shelach put together a 12-minute piece on Obama’s victory for their Friday night news magazine show. It’s called “the dream that became reality,” and you can watch it here in streaming video. Druker introduces the piece by announcing in mock-amazement that he nearly had a car accident upon hearing that Shelach, supposedly a tough, seasoned reporter, had leaked a few tears while watching Obama’s election-night speech."
Moist!
;>}
November 11, 2008 6:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
The people in Spain that are really having the last laugh are the banking sector folk. The Americans have been lecturing them for years on how they should loosen up their countercyclical regulations and now the Spanish banks are being held up as an example for everyone of prudent practice. Believe me, the people in Spain that need to know about the USA, really know quite a bit.
November 12, 2008 4:00 AM | Reply | Permalink