THE PURPLING OF THE LONE STAR STATE
(This is just up at HuffingtonPost.com, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/deanie-mills/changing-colors-in-the-lo_b_136190.html, under the title, "Changing Colors in the Lone Star State," and cross-posted at my blog, "Blue Inkblots," at http://deaniemills.com )
On just about any political polling map you can name, the state of Texas is always reliably Red. A former Texas governor is now the president (such as he is); we've got a Republican governor, both our U.S. senators are Republican, and Tom DeLay's famous and evil redistricting scheme, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/12/01/AR2005120101927_pf.html
which caused all the state Democratic congressmen to literally leave the state and hide out in New Mexico to avoid voting for it--gave the U.S. Congress five more Republicans in the following election.
But those maps don't tell the whole story. The truth is that Texas is turning more purple every day.
Weekend endorsements from the Dallas Morning News,
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/opinion/editorials/stories/DN-nutwospots_19edi.State.Edition1.2908f55.html
which backed John McCain, and the Houston Chronicle
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/politics/recommendations/6065490.html
and Austin American Statesman,
http://www.statesman.com/opinion/content/editorial/stories/10/19/1019president_edit.html
which endorsed Barack Obama, are perfect examples of the split personality of the state of Texas at this time, and the changing nature of that personality.
And a dead-on example of that is Dallas county. Once a bastion of conservatism, it would appear on the surface to still be one, since, after all, the Morning News endorsed McCain, revealing their bias in this telling statement:
"Americans approach this election in understandable fear and anger, especially at the incumbent Republican president who, however unjustly, bears the brunt of the blame for the crisis. " (emphasis mine)
This is the kind of little editorial caveat, buried in the middle of a sentence, that reveals a great deal. Somehow, the man who has been president for the past eight years is NOT TO BLAME for the wreckage he has made not only of his own presidency, but of the nation.
The editorial goes on to point out all the times McCain bucked his own party--not mentioning, of course, that he has reversed himself on all those things, and to dwell for an entire paragraph on the deficit, which bothers the paper, apparently, more than any other problem facing the country. (Ranking economists on both sides of the political aisle agree that the deficit is actually the LEAST of our problems right now.)
But what the editorial says is meaningless in the face of the REALITY of what is going on in Dallas country right now.
In 2006, EVERY SINGLE DALLAS COUNTY ELECTION SPOT WAS WON BY DEMOCRATS, from judges to dogcatcher.
In fact, as former Democratic gubanatorial candidate Chris Bell wrote on the website, The Texas Blue http://www.thetexasblue.com
there is growing excitement among Texas Democrats statewide:
http://www.thetexasblue.com/democratic-outlook
"People in Texas woke up after the 2006 election and realized a new day had dawned. Gone was the skepticism and despair which had driven us to our lowest point. People all across the state were ready to fight another day.
"Nowhere has the awakening been any greater than here at home in Harris County. Shortly after the 2006 election, after seeing the successful effort in Dallas County, a committee was formed to try to recruit judicial candidates since that had been so difficult in the past. There was no need for a recruitment committee. People were lining up to run for judge in Harris County and now there will be contested Democratic Primary races for a large number of benches. We also have great candidates for every other county office.
"The Harris County Democratic Party's Johnson Rayburn Dinner had attracted 300 or so people in 2006. In 2007, over 800 people purchased tickets and the ballroom was packed to the gills. "
Bell goes on to describe numerous Democratic events he has attended statewide, with hundreds more in attendance than expected, and mentions that even the media "no longer treats the Republican party as invincible."
Harris county is, of course home to Houston, and this new blue flame is licking at a city's heels that once seemed the impregnable fortress of Bush Oilfield Republican Rule, and is still the home of George Bush 41.
According to Texas Blue, http://www.thetexasblue.com/races-could-surprise-you-tx-u-s-district-10 the 10th District, which encompasses a large area from the southwest suburbs of Austin to the northwest suburbs of Houston, has also benefitted from an influx of Democratic voters, putting its congressional seat into play.
The thing is, for the stalwart Houston Chronicle to endorse Barack Obama is big. Huge. Massive. Ginormous. (Okay, I'll stop now.):
"The incoming administration must immediately focus and engage on so many fronts. The tasks at hand will require stamina, creativity and leadership abilities to replace partisan gridlock with a national consensus on what is best for the American people. The new leadership team must have the intellect and temperament to tackle complex issues with equally sophisticated solutions. The current go-it-alone mentality in the White House on foreign policy must give way to an effort to work in concert with our allies while engaging our enemies at the negotiating table as well as on the battlefield.
"After carefully observing the Democratic and Republican nominees in drawn-out primary struggles as well as in the general campaign, including three debates, the Chronicle strongly believes that the ticket of Sens. Barack Obama and Joe Biden offers the best choice to lead the United States on a new course into the second decade of the 21st century.
"Obama appears to possess the tools to confront our myriad and daunting problems. He's thoughtful and analytical. He has met his opponents' attacks with calm and reasoned responses. Viewers of the debates saw a poised, well-prepared plausible president with well-articulated positions on the bread-and-butter issues that poll after poll indicate are the true concerns of voters. While Arizona Sen. John McCain and his running mate Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin have struck an increasingly personal and negative tone in their speeches, Obama has continued to talk about issues of substance."
They go on to say that while they hope Obama might be more amenable to the oil industry than he's been so far, they applaud his support of NASA. Like most of 104 other nationwide newspapers who have endorsed Obama,
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/greg-mitchell/why-obamas-shocking-lands_b_136010.html
the Chronicle deplores McCain's campaign tactics and his choice of Sarah Palin as VP.
For the Austin American Statesman to endorse Obama is not quite so cataclysmic, since the state capitol and home to the University of Texas is known as a liberal town. However, the capitol itself has been pretty reliably Red in recent years, which makes the American Statesman's comments that much more satisfying:
"In the third and final debate last week, John McCain, the Republican senator from Arizona, tried to bait him into the gutter, but Obama refused to get down there. Political wisdom dictates that candidates who are attacked return double the fire directed at them. Obama responded calmly, defending himself but declining to respond in kind.
"Now that's change."
They go on to play the "now that's change" meme all through the piece. I hope Tom DeLay's boys choked on it over their Cheerios Sunday morning, before leaving for church, where they could pretend to be righteous.
But it's not just the big cities of Texas that are turning purple.
A look at the congressional map put up by the Lone Star Project,
http://www.lonestarproject.net/Map/House%20Protect/TXVictoryMap.html
shows a bright swath of blue right through the heart of West Texas--what I like to call the buckle of the Bush Bible Belt. The blue sections encompass areas in the vicinity of Midland--the town where Bush likes to pretend he grew up--the ultra-conservative Abilene, and the Panhandle town of Plainview, as well as deep East Piney Woods counties, (that puts the lie to the idea of total Redneck dominance).
As the accompanying article points out, http://www.lonestarproject.net/Map/TXVictory.html
this has come about IN SPITE OF DeLay's redistricting sheme. And we all know by now, much to my happy relish, DeLay himself lost his own seat in 2006 to a Democrat, Nick Lampson.
As Chris Bell pointed out in his piece, the purpling--even possible blueing--of the Lone Star State is not going to happen all at once, even with a Democratic lead candidate as charismatic and competent as the one we've got. It's happening, in fact, so gradually that the Republicans don't even seem to have noticed. This is still a state where neither top candidate ever visits during the final weeks of their campaigns, because they assume the state is too reliably Red for either one to worry about.
But this year, Obama is running ads in Texas around the clock. I see them all the time, and we get our local news feed from Abilene. His Texas organization is well-trained, well-funded, and well-organized. They're fighting for every single vote.
Over time, those votes are going to add up. Check in with me again in four years. By that time I think Texas is going to be purple.
By the end of President Obama's second term, it might even be blue.





Well, if you go purple, then welcome to the swing state world, where everybody has to volunteer and there's no end in sight!
Thanks for this hopeful thought. Meanwhile I think you Texas Dems need to think up a State song or something to share with us as you move toward purple. Something stirring. And hopeful.
October 20, 2008 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
We walk three to five miles every day. The result of our totally non-scientific Yard Sign poll from our local neighborhood in San Antonio:
8 weeks ago:
McCain Yard Signs: 8
Obama Yard Signs: 1 (ours)
Today:
McCain Yard Signs: 6 (yes, two are now gone!)
Obama Yard Signs: 10
(and that's only counting our two signs as one sign, lol)
It is getting to be so much fun going out to stores wearing our Obama shirts, caps, and buttons. (We always have buttons to give away.)
People have gone from giving us ugly looks two months ago, to coming over to introduce themselves with huge smiles. It is truly exciting to be an Obama supporter 'round these parts.
We no longer fear my car being vandalized just because we have four Obama stickers on it. The change in people's attitude has been nothing short of remarkable.
We can't speak to all of Texas, but we can confirm, at least in our area of San Antonio, Change is coming.
October 20, 2008 6:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
RM, I'm in San Antonio but I don't see what you've been seeing.
I've only seen the slightest increase in Obama support in my area (near Sea World). When I go to Ft Sam or Lackland, I see a multitude of McCain/Palin stickers and I get so frustrated because I can't place an Obama flyer that shows the vast differences between Obama and McCain on their windshield. There are rules prohibiting this on military bases.
I hope that Obama fever spreads in this direction.
October 20, 2008 10:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I will be very curious to see what happens in Texas this year. I will be curious to see where many republican states are a week from now.
I do believe that there are many people who won't be able to vote for McCain because of Sarah Palin in Texas perhaps for somewhat sexist reasons... Actually as much as racism and Palin's lack of readiness has been mentioned, sexism has really not been measured here. I do wonder that many won't privately either vote for Obama or someone else... because the idea of a woman president is probably still an issue for many.
October 20, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
It would already be purple if people actually did their due diligence and not voted for a republican just because their grandparents or parents told them so...
"Republican - Straight ticket" could be the dumbest phrase I ever "learned" growing up in Texas
October 20, 2008 5:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey Deanie-
Thanks for posting this as I'm from Texas. I can't say the Austin-American Statesman endorsement is surprising but the Dallas Morning Blues will be the last major paper in the nation to endorse a Democrat.
I wish Noriega had had a better jump on this race because I think he could be in a better position to ride the coattails....
Texas will be purple in the next couple cycles and a swinger...
October 20, 2008 6:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also, part of the reasons for the "redness" was redistricting which may or may not get rectified...
October 20, 2008 6:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
It had better get rectified! We have to win back Texas's legislative branch; our Republicans seem to lack any semblance of a conscience.
October 20, 2008 6:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
A further thought - didn't they used to do it every ten years, based on the census results? If so, we can expect something to be done about the unfair district lines in a little over a couple of years.
October 20, 2008 9:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you! We'll have a nice, purple Texas sometime in the next decade, but the Republicans are going to make a serious effort to win our trust again after the hijinks of the "Republican revolution" era.
October 20, 2008 7:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
RM Rocks, you made my day! I LOVE the idea of your purely unscientific survey of yard signs in San Antonio.
I've noticed the same kinds of reaction to my gigantic Obama car-sign and festoons of buttons when I go into town. When I first started driving around with the sign, 18 mos ago, people would say, "What's an Obama?"
Then they'd say, "He's that guy running for president, isn't he?"
Then it was, "What does he intend to do about the war?" (or whatever)
Now they say, "Cool sign. Where'd ya get it?"
October 20, 2008 7:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't want to burst any bubbles but in our N. Dallas neighborhood we have the only Obama yard sign for a 3 block radius. Wake up every morning surprised it's still there!
October 20, 2008 8:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Deanie Mills,
I would also add that I have a one man/ van charter service here in Austin . Back during the primaries I was taking one prinicipal & five teachers to our airport . All six were women , all six had voted for Obama in our primary - all six had previously been life long Republican -If Midland Odessa is turnning purple then hell yes Texas is in play .
October 20, 2008 9:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
The demographics dynamic in Texas strongly favors Texas in the long term. In 20-25 years Hispanics will outnumber whites in Texas. What will the GOP then?
October 20, 2008 9:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Given their history, they might gerrymander again!
October 20, 2008 9:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, Deanie, Texas is blueing! I can feel it in my bones! Okay, I realize my perspective is skewed -- I live in the "blue-est" part of Texas (Austin) -- but as you point out in your post, we're seeing support for Democrats in surprising places.
Here's the endorsement from another very conservative part of Texas, Bryan-College Station, home to Texas A&M University and the George Bush Library: http://www.theeagle.com/editorial/101908-President
I nearly fell out of my chair when I read it!
October 20, 2008 10:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Deanie, great post. I truly hope you are right about Texas.
October 20, 2008 10:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
One of the reasons I have flipped from Republican to Democrat is because of Tom DeLay's gerrymander. I lived in Wichita Falls at the time, and its close proximity to Ardmore meant we heard a LOT about it. I lost a lot of respect for the Texas Republicans that summer, and haven't voted for very many of them since. I'm sure I'm not the only one...
October 21, 2008 12:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
I lived in Houston about 30 years ago and I learned then that there is a great liberal tradition that was still alive then and though underground, has persisted. Non-Texans will recognize Jim Hightower who actually won election there; Gov. Ann Richards; the great Molly Ivins; Houston mayors Fred Hofheinz and Kathy Whitmire (maybe only Texans know them).
And the endorsement from the Aggies is, well, something else.
Makes me nostalgic for my time there because as strange as it was for a northeast boy, I learned to love the damn place.
October 21, 2008 1:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, good to hear those names.
October 21, 2008 11:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
As a former long-time resident of Texas (still over half of my 44 years on the planet, in fact), it warms my heart to hear that the progressive undercurrents which have been fomenting so long are finally bubbling to the top so powerfully.
October 21, 2008 4:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
.
Ah Deanie ...
I haven't been around these parts in quite some time.
Good to see you're still hanging on and keeping up the good fight.
What else is there?
I've spent so much time here Virginia and out in Colorado I'm starting to think they won't let me vote back home on the left coast. But every minute out here on the road drumming up the vote has been well worth the time. Who woulda thunk it just 6 short months ago that these two states would have turned the way they have.
~OGD~
** Infrequent Cafe contributor since June 2005 **
October 21, 2008 6:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for a great post! I voted early yesterday here in rural Central Texas, in a county that has shown a 70 percent increase in voter registration this year.
With Barack inspiring heavy turnout in Dallas and Houston, and Rick Noriega turning out the Hispanic vote, Texas could shock the nation come Nov. 4.
Yee-haw!
Just one historic clarification: Our Democratic state representatives fled to Ardmore, OK, to avoid the redistricting vote; Democrats in the state senate went to New Mexico.
October 21, 2008 9:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
LauraJordan--OMG! I am DUMBSTRUCK! I'm married to an Aggie (class '70) and my Iraq-vet son is an Aggie (class '02) and believe me, there is no more conservative place ANYWHERE.
Thank you so much for this link--I e-mailed it to my son. This is not the first time I've read an editorial that begins, "In 50 years (or 60 or 100) we have never endorsed a Democrat..."
The Bryan/College Station paper even went so far as to say that when they simply could not endorse the Rep, they didn't endorse at all. So this is just wonderful.
GIG 'EM, AGGIES!
(Oh, and oskieoskie, I knew it was state-house reps but didn't clarify it. Good thing you did.)
October 21, 2008 9:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
OldenGoldenOldie--I forgot to say--GOOD TO SEE YOU HERE! Come back again sometime, will ya?
October 21, 2008 9:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
The internet provides news that will, in the long run, help people in red states to know how much blue is peeking through! You done good, Deanie!
October 21, 2008 9:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Deanie - you rock. I've been meaning to tell you for weeks that I've thought your one-mother war on Sarah Palin and John McCain has been just awesome.
And this is another great post, Deanie.
October 21, 2008 10:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
The good news is that gerrymandering is self-limiting.
It has a curious limitation: while it can be used to keep a minority party in power, the closer it's shaved, the more likely a complete and catastrophic loss of power becomes.
Say you've got a state with 4.9 million voters, divided into 7 districts of 700,000 each. It's been extreme-gerrymandered so that 4 districts are majority R, with 350,001 R's and 349,999 D's; 3 districts are majority D, with 700,000 D's and no R's.
There are a total of 1,400,004 R's in the state - only 29% of the total. But the R's control 4 of 7 districts - enough to control ALL the electoral votes.
Q: What happens if only 1 R voter in each of the R districts changes her mind?
A: ALL 7 DISTRICTS go D, not only changing the electoral vote of the state, but also changing 4 of the 7 Representatives from R to D.
The greater the number of districts in a state, the closer you can shave the gerrymandering to the point where barely 25% of the voters are controlling the entire electoral vote. But you do so at the risk of losing ALL the districts in a catastrophic loss caused by just a very few voters changing their minds.
On a smaller scale, this is exactly what happened to Tom Delay in Texas District 22: in order to maximize the number of districts controlled by Republicans, several formerly Republican-safe districts had to give up a few Republican voters so that adjacent districts could become majority-Republican. Then, when he was implicated in money-laundering - a charge which previously would not have stuck - it was enough to scotch his chances for reelection.
Gerrymandering is the Ring of Power, the use of which eventually becomes one's own downfall. I can only hope that we D's maintain our majority through wise governance rather than electoral manipulation - or the same catastrophic loss of power awaits us down the road.
After this election, let's keep on 'em to keep 'em honest.
Stay on it, Deanie!!
Signed,
a fellow Texan who's excited about being re-enfranchised
October 21, 2008 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, well - we saw how effective this had been in '06. Yo?
It's still an extra layer we have to fight in Texas and damn we get no respect for winning what we do with very little help.
October 21, 2008 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've really missed Molly Ivins this election cycle. Can you just imagine the fun she would have had with Sarah Palin?
I live in District 10, we are just east of Manor, and we are really hoping to get rid of Michael McCaul.
In 2006 we took part in the demonstration against the gerrymandered districts. There is an intersection in Austin where you can stand on one corner and be in a district that reaches to the Rio Grande. If you cross the street going east your are in the district that reaches to Houston and if you cross the street going north your are in a district that reaches to Waco.
October 21, 2008 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
HusseinTenaX--what a delight you are girl. Keep comin' round.
Tom Shepard--outstanding analysis; really contributes to the discussion. I've enjoyed our back-and-forths over on Blue Inkblots.
sdimond--you are so RIGHT about Molly Ivins! I can't even imagine the square dance she'd've had with Palin. She's gotta be grinning and elbowing Ann Richards from up above...
October 21, 2008 12:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just an Austin observation. Grand total of McCain bumper stickers I've seen in the last 3 months: 2. Really - that's it. Dozens of Ron Paul stickers, hundreds of Obama. But really - only 2. Keep your eyes peeled and see if you notice anything similar.
October 21, 2008 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I live in Texas and I've already voted for Obama. People are less fearful, yes fearful, to display yard signs and bumper stickers. Small progress, but progress it is. My hope is that the college students I registered who don't have land line phones and others like them will amount to a much closer race here in Texas than is expected.
I must say though, that the people here in Texas who support republicans are simply not interested in any discussion of the issues. They are blindly loyal to the party, and would vote for a giraffe if their party put it on the ballot. It's pretty sad. The discipline of the GOP here in Texas is kinda stunning, given all the information that is available to put people straight.
Here in Texas, you get arguments like, "the democrats will make it worse." and "we are sliding right into socialism" and "government can't fix the problems." Sigh. Recent posts on various blogs say these are new arguments. I've been hearing them all year here in Texas.
October 21, 2008 12:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aye, I liken living in Texas the last couple of decades to living in Mordor: you're surrounded by orcs who blindly follow their Republican masters.
It certainly wasn't like this when I was a laddie. Which is not to say there weren't racist rednecks aplenty, but this whole Capitol of Jesusland aura wasn't so dominant, and back then Texans weren't so fast to just turn over their thinking ability to a criminal like Tom Delay.
Here's to a purple future!
October 21, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink