Good morning!

Welcome to the day we take our country back.

If you haven't voted already, vote.  If you have not already sent a message to all you know telling them to vote, do that, then vote.

Me?

I am voting at 7:00 am here in my precinct in Massachusetts and then heading up to New Hampshire where the Obama campaign is sending me to a part of that battleground state where they still need more volunteers. 

When I called last night to ask saying I would go wherever they needed me, they did not say:

 "any place would be fine"
 " we already have enough volunteers, thanks"
 "um, not sure we will get back to you"

What they said was:

"Where do you live?"
"How far are you willing to drive?"
"How about (INSERT TOWN NAME HERE), that would be a XX hour drive?"

I said, sure.  And then they gave me the relevant contact info and that was it.

This organization is amazing.  I have been helping out on campaigns since McGovern in '72 and I have never seen anything like it.

So as you get up this morning...and you ask yourself the question "Is there anything else you can do today to help take the country back?"  The answer is yes.

If you are in a battleground state, the Obama campaign still needs you.
Go on the website, enter your zipcode for the office nearest you and call them.

If you are in a neighboring state, ask yourself the question, "How far are willing to drive for change?" then go to the website, get the contact info for an office in that state and call them.  They will tell you where to go.

For the rest of today you won't have to worry about exit polls, late breaking smears and such.   You will be too busy.  Action is the best antidote for angst.

As Senator Obama said to an seemingly endless crowd last night in his closing rally of the campaign in Mannasas, Virginia:

"I have made the argument, now it's about who wants it more."

We do.

Will we take our country back today?

Yes we will.

Thanks TPM'ers for your nominations, discussion and votes for the Eddie Award, the TPM community's opportunity to recognize journalists who are making a difference by doing their job, getting to the truth and getting it out...not just relaying the spins of the campaigns.

Our first winner is Katie Couric of CBS News.
Runners up:  Campbell Brown and Rachel Maddow
Honorable mention:  Keith Olberman

Katies impact on the election has never been clearer than this Monday morning two weeks before the election.   Over the past weekend newspapers across the nation began making their endorsements for president.  Many, in choosing Barack Obama, cited his selection for VP as a reason to question McCain's judgment.  McCain's choice of Palin was also referenced by Colin Powell in his endorsement of Obama.  Before Couric's respectful but remarkable interview  - Governor Palin  was an exciting new figure on the American political scene, firing up the Republican base and brining out the crowds for her candidate.  But then a week of Couric interviews drip, drip, dripped into the national consciousness - and Palin was revealed for what she is, someone not qualified to be a heart beat away from the presidency.

Once again, our first ever Eddie goes to the anchor of the CBS Evening News - Katie Couric.  Got her blog using the link below and leave a comment, thanking her for making a difference through her professionalism, persistence and dedication to accuracy in reporting.

http://www.cbsnews.com/sections/couricandco/main500803.php?category=Katie_Couric_s_Notebook&dir=couricandco

You got to hand to to Fox, try as they might to drive their phony stories the truth will out once in a while - even on their flimsy excuse for a "News Channel."

This morning's headline were simply delicious:

Obama Seeing Blue in Red States
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/17/obama-hopes-turn-reliably-red-states-blue/

The Republican Noise Machine were ready to push the "It's tightening" meme BEFORE the last debate, but the polls did not cooperate - providing a different story - "McCain down by double digits!".  Well here we go again...

MSNBC's Morning Joe has picked up the "It's down to 2 point!" narrative that Drudge started with a banner headline yesterday based on Gallup's dubious "Traditional" Likely Voter screen - one of three Gallup scenarios and - SURPRISE - the only one showing it that close - and made it the focus of the program's first hour.  Good for Andrea Mitchell who, when asked by Willie if she thought the race was that close, said many people are saying that but then noted that McCain is flying across the country defending Red states in which he is behhind.

Funny how Joe never mentioned Gallup's same poll has Obama up 6 with both Registered Voters and their new expanded likely voter screen (the one based on what they think will happen in this race).  Talking points to fight the fiction that it is that close after the jump.

Read more »

Remember the Texas debate back in the primaries - Hillary and Barack sitting side by side?

Many considered it to be Obama's strongest performance in the debates.

Well, that is the format tonight.

Some questions:

• How will that play into the audiences perception of the candidates?
• How will help/hurt McCain if he decides to launch an Ayers-war again the democrat?
• How will Obama use it to help close the deal with the American people?

Some things to consider:

• Obama seems more comfortable with McCain than does McCain with him
• It is harder to look your opponent in the eye and ask why he "pals around with terrorists" when he is sitting right next to you
• The very closeness of the participants tends to enforce a certain civility
• The fact that they are sitting side by side tends to level the players as equals

So how could Obama put all that together? 

Accepting the fact that being at the same level means he does not have to try so hard, Obama can relax, turn on the charm and smile at McCain, the moderator and the audience once in a while - appreciating things his opponent says with which he agrees to demonstrate his bipartisanship - using the same smile later but adding a slight shake of his head when he pivots to say tough things like calling out McCain for saying things that are not true or reminding Americans we just can't afford four more years of the same.  And then he can lean forward, look into the camera and get serious, speaking in short sentences directly to the American people  - explaining why things are so hard for them now and specifically how he and they will have to make tough choices and work hard together to turn the country around.

He does that and it is game - set - match Obama, regardless of what McCain might do.

So, all in all I would say the format will matter and it means advantage Obama. 

The question is will the he take full advantage of it.

We are getting a great response today on the TPM Eddie Award for Journalistic Accuracy. 
Based on your helpfully pragmatic input we will run this for the week, providing updates throughout, with a winner to be announced each week on Friday.  Nominees so far include Campbell Brown, Katie Couric and Rachel Maddow. 

Nominees so far...

Campbell Brown of CNN for "So what if Obama were a Muslim or an Arab?"

Katie Couric of CBS News for her interviews of Sarah Palin

Rachel Maddow of MSNBC for her interview with David Frum  on her own show

Comments on the nominees?  Other heroes of the fourth estate we should consider honoring?

Read more »

Based on the positive feedback yesterday on the post praising CNN's story on McCain's misleading statements about Obama's tax plan, we, the TPM Community will be granting each day an award for Accuracy in Journalism named for Edward R. Murrow which, to distinguish it from the many other awards named for the legendary dean of CBS News, we are calling The Eddie.

Use this thread to offer your nominations throughout the day.  We will close out nominations toward the end of the afternoon and award to the organization or individual who, for today at least, met the standard for journalistic accuracy that is...The Eddie.

Definition of accuracy (from Dictionary.Com):

The condition or quality of being true, correct, or exact; freedom from error or defect; precision or exactness; correctness.

Our criteria for the award: To be awarded to journalists or journalistic organizations who consistently demonstrate in the performance of their duties that they value educating the public over generating higher ratings or sales and that they are willing to take the heat from the campaigns by calling out departures from fact versus taking the easy route and merely repeating a lie they have heard.

Some suggested guidelines:

• Checking on what a candidate says about their opponent and including the truth along with the accusation
  
• Holding candidates responsible for what they said yesterday, not just reporting what they say today
• Pointing out in interviews with a candidate to their face when a statement is false, misleading or and/or more true of their own campaign than that of their opponent

Questions:

• Can an Eddie go to the same organization or individual in successive days?  Yes.
• Can we go a day without an Eddie if no one meets the standard?  Yes.
  

Obama got out in front on the Republican Noise Machine's carefully orchestrated ACORN voter registration fraud dust up. 

Check out the link for the article in the Washington Post:
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/10/14/obama_comments_on_acorn_contro.html

CNN got it right today on one of the key issues in the campaign - who is telling the truth about taxes.  McCain included in his economic message today another shot at Obama mocking Barack's claim to be a tax cutter:

"He's an eloquent speaker, but even he can't turn a record of supporting higher taxes into a credible promise to cut taxes. What he promises today is the opposite of what he has done his entire career," McCain said at a rally in Blue Bell, Pennsylvania...McCain repeated his claim that Obama voted 94 times to raise taxes.

Rather than pass on McCain's indictment of Obama's voting record without question, CNN turned it over to its FACT CHECKER, embedding a link to their analysis in middle of the article on McCain's speech:

Key findings:
-53 were votes on budget resolutions or amendments that "could not have resulted by themselves in raising taxes," though many "were clear statements of approval for increased taxes"
-23 were against proposed tax cuts
-11 were to increase taxes on people making more than $1 million a year, to help fund programs such as Head Start, school nutrition, or veterans' health care
-Seven were "for measures that would have lowered taxes for many, while raising them on a relative few, either corporations or affluent individuals."
- The total includes multiple votes on the same measures.

Annenberg says a close look at the record reveals that Obama has "voted consistently to restore higher tax rates on upper-income taxpayers but not on middle- or low-income workers."

Verdict:
Misleading. McCain's summary ignores the fact that some of the votes were for measures to lower taxes for many Americans, while increasing them for a much smaller number of taxpayers. A nonpartisan examination also finds that the 94 total includes multiple votes on the same measures and budget votes that would not directly lead to higher taxes.

Nailed!

CNN went on to describe Obama's stated policy on taxes:

Obama's tax plan would cut taxes for most taxpayers, but raise them for the wealthiest. The largest increases would be on the top one-percent of earners, according to analysis by the Tax Policy Center, a nonpartisan research group whose staff of experts includes former economic advisers to the White House and Congress under both Republicans and Democrats.

We often decry the MSM with good reason for their willingness to regurgitate without question the nonsense coming out of the McCain campaign allowing the charges to stick while they wait to see what the Obama campaign will say, reporting on the fight but not the facts.  But today CNN - the self-proclaimed most trusted name in news - but more importantly the most watched - got it right, holding McCain's claim up to the light for the better look the American people deserve when they choose a president.

Keep up the good work!

Dick Morris, former Republican aide to Bill Clinton, architect of the infamously successful approach to governance known as Triangulation, was manager of Clinon's 1996 re-election campaign until he was publicy cast off for letting a prosititute listen in on the President's calls.  Most in the Clinton team were happy to see him go - viewing Morris as a kind of Dark Lord of the Sith who whispered seductive things about the power of the Dark Side to a President that seemed mysteriously swayed by them.

Fast forwarding to 2008, Morris was curiously mildy pro Obama during the primaries  - just long enough to see his old boss Bill's wife Hillary shut out.  Now he spends his time on Fox and NewsMax bashing Obama - spouting the McCain party line about the Senator from Illinois' radical past and his sinister associations - expressing concern for the dangers these pose to the Republic were Barack to win.

So with that background in mind, I ask you, fellow TPM'ers, what is up with Dick Morris' assessment of the current electoral map:

http://w3.newsmax.com/a/morrismap/?promo_code=6BD7-1

He is granting Obama 396 electoral votes to 110 for McCain, a landslide of Reaganesque proportions, ceding not only swing states like OH, NC and VA to Barack, but also conceding West Virginia - and catch this  - Tennesse and Arizona?

...Republican bastions like South Carolina, Georgia, and Louisiana are now no better than tossups.  If the election took place this week, it would be a wipeout of major proportions. Even McCain's home state of Arizona has to be classified as leaning toward Obama. McCain, as of now, can be certain of carrying just eight states with a combined total of only 36 electoral votes.

All this, Morris claims, is based on his reading of the polls.

Three questions:

1. Are there really polls that would in anway justify this GOP - End of Days scenario?
2. Assuming no to Question 1, is there any other data base from which  Morris can extrapolate to get this forecast?
3. Assuming no to Question 2, what is this guy's angle?  Is he trying to scare out the vote?

Now that the McCain/Palin campaign is publicly "turning the page," engaging in a desperate attempt to change the narrative from who can best lead us through this financial crisis to who wants that man who pals around with terrorists as our president, Obama needs to be ready - ready both to preemptively strike at their vulnerabilities and ready to strike back at their smears. Particularly he needs to be ready for what will likely be a very nasty night during Debate Two. McCain is preparing the media and his followers for McCain the fighter in Tuesday's debate - going from grumpy old man to - grizzly old warrior. So what should Barack do? Remeber the best defense is a good offense. We all said we wished Obama could have put McCain away for good in Debate One. So rather than preparing to respond to McCain's attacks on Tuesday, Obama should be readying his own, focused on taking McCain out early. So let's help Barack - what are your suggestions for the Byte that makes McCain bite the dust? Bring 'em on...

Okay, so I admit it.  I am poll obsessed.

I start each day on Kos with the RS2000 poll and summary of the day prior polls (a truly excellent posting).

I know almost to the minute when to check (around 9:15 am) for Rasmussen and Gallup (around 1:05 pm).

I realize I am not the only one.  Some of you out there may share this addiction.  Tell tale signs include checking your Blackberry every five minutes to see if any new polls have been posted, following Pollster's comments to get the inside info on a poll's accuracy, following the specific of Nate Silverman's modeling algorithm's, and creating your own Electoral Map on RCP (sorry it does not really save what you create).

Like an alcoholic we have many reasons why we drink from the polling status bottle.  I need to check because Barack is behind, can he turn it around?  I need to check because Barack is ahead, can he keep it up?  I need to check on a specific state because it is in play.  I need to check on how many states are no longer in play.

You get the drift.  
There is ALWAYS some reason to check the polls.

I like the feeling of knowing that of all the people in the room I am the one with the most current and comprehensive polling picture in my head.  This weekend I provided assurance to my daughter's college roommate here in Ohio by taking her through all the polls and projections...assuring her that yes Barack is starting to pull away ...and no, Palin's President Barby imitation at the debate is not playing well.

So I was feeling pretty full of myself when we walked into Obama headquarters in Elyria,to join other volunteers going out to go canvass.

"Hi, I am from Massachusetts.  My daughter (not the one in college in OH, her twin who just graduated from a school back east) and I are here to volunteer."

"Great!" said Ben, the local Obama coodinator.

As he began to pass out the walk lists, I engaged my fellow canvassers in campaign small talk. 

"Seen the latest polls?" I asked.

Several shook their heads. 

"Ten point leads all the way around.  Barack has reached the big 5-0 in almost all the tracking polls..."

Ben interrupted me.

"We don't watch the polls."  The self-satisfied smile was erased from my face.  Ben went on.  "We know it is going to be close.  Obama is running a different kind of campaign in Ohio.  This is the best organization this state has ever seen in a national campaign.  Kerry turned out record tallies in all the traditionally democratic districts...and lost by 118,000 votes.  We are contesting every ward.  We need every vote."

With that, Ben went through our instructions for the day.

I listened, noting the early voting opportunities, getting a sense of the neighborhoods we would be walking.

But I also was thinking...thinking about polls and people.

There are two kinds of people I thought:

The ones that watch the polls. 
And the ones that move them.

Then I wrote this blog and read it to my daughters.

They liked it, but quickly pointed out there is at least one other kind of person.  The one who is not following this election at all.

So now it's off to another day in the neighborhoods of Elyria, Ohio...in search of those yet to be engaged and lock in the votes that are going to lock down an Obama victory.

Yes we can!

When Obama was falling behind in the polls, Morning Joe was all over it.  The questions each morning?

 - What is wrong with the Obama campaign?
 - When is the media going to stop focusing on Sarah Palin, which only serves to help McCain?

Now that Obama is surging back (pun intended), Morning Joe is again all over it.  The questions this morning?

 - How biased is the media against John McCain?
 - How hypocritical is this bias as they once loved McCain?

Fascinating.  Instead of asking what is the McCain campaign doing wrong, as they were doing last week with Obama, they switch to Junior High School gossip cafeteria conversation...who dumped who for whom...and can you believe what they are saying about him.  I thought we were a country in financial crisis, a country at war.  Seems like that would call for a hard-hitting national discourse on the best path forward out of these crises.  Right?

Well maybe not on Morning Joe.

What is truly pathetic about Morning Joe's anti-media rant this morning is that they indirectly portray McCain as victim, leaving what he is saying, what his campaign is doing completely out of the picture:

 - Are they suggesting his campaign lies should not have been called out? 

 - Should McCain's gaffes on the economy being strong when it is clearly not be ignored? 

 - Should the MSM simply play along when the man who describes himself as fundamentally a de-regulator suddenly says he is fired up and ready to take on the old boy network on Wall Street? 

 - Should the media look the other way when the person he chose to be "a heart beat away" shamelessly makes stuff up and moves to shut down an investigation into her own misconduct?

Is the point that if the media is NOT carrying McCain's water the senior senator from Arizona is incapable of doing it himself?  Not exactly a vote of confidence for the man the RNC held up as tried, tested and ready to be our president.

Come on Joe, can't you do any better than that?

New Battleground state numbers out from Time/CNN.

Note that all but WI were red states in 2004.

Seems like a lot is still in play and, unlike some of the MSM messaging we have been heatring lately, if you add VA, CO, and NV to this list then we are still talking a potential redrawing of the map in 2008.

For details click here

You could feel it coming, a message sharpening, the media waking up to its mission to inform...a tide turning...

And it has!

Hot Line - Obama ahead
R2000 - Obama ahead
Zogby - Obama ahead
Rasmussen - Obama closing, McCain clinging by +1

And now...drumroll please...here's Gallup.

Obama leads, +2  link.

But just because the bounce up for McCain has bounced back down, don't back down on your committment to change.  We make the numbers move.  Isn't it fun!