I just watched Josh's video on the electoral map and the McCain campaign's challenges. I agree with its conclusions but found it a little more complicated than it needs to be. Here's the issue, in a nutshell. ALL the states Al Gore won in 2000, when he earned 266 electoral votes, 4 short of the total needed to win the election, look pretty safe for Obama. If he can retain those, he has MANY possible paths to success, while McCain has very few. Keeping Gore's blue states blue means:


1. Hold Pennsylvania. Currently, polls show Obama leading by 10 or more points.
2. Hold Michigan. This seems very likely right now. Polls show Obama with a 12 point lead.
3. Hold Wisconsin, which Obama leads by 12.
4. Hold New Mexico. Gore won it, Kerry lost it. 5 electoral votes. Obama leads by about 8 points.

If Obama can keep those Gore states, he can win ANY OF THE FOLLOWING WAYS, as in ONLY ONE of the following are necessary.

5. Take Virginia.  Obama has an 8 point lead in the most recent polls. 13 electoral votes
6. Take Colorado. Obama has a 5.5% lead in the most recent polls. 9 electoral votes
7. Take New Hampshire. Bush won in 2000, Kerry in 2004 Obama has a 10-point lead.
8. Take Nevada, which Bush won both times. Obama has a 5-point lead.

9., 10, 11., 12, and so on: Win NC, where Obama leads by 3%, or Florida, where Obama leads by 2%, or Ohio, where Obama leads by 3%, or Missouri, where Obama leads by 3%, or Indiana, where McCain leads by 3%.

As long as we hold the states listed in 1-4, ANY ONE of these things means an Obama victory.

Looks promising, but before it means anything people have to show up and vote.

Please understand that, with this post, I am not belittling the awful things McCain experienced earlier in his life. My point is, rather, that whether or not it's connected to those earlier experiences, the word--tortured--accurately captures the McCain I saw on the stage last night, and have seen on other stages. He is not comfortable in his own skin. He is not comfortable--commendably perhaps--with the moral compromises he has made in this campaign. He is self-involved, narcissistic, obsessed with his own experiences and pain.

Contrast George W Bush, and Sarah Palin, both of whom can lie with equanimity, apparently without conscience. Perhaps they feel that God forgives them for it. And contrast Obama, whose conscience seems clear (I would argue) because it is largely unsullied.

I think that makes McCain a better person than Bush or Palin. But I also think it makes McCain risky. Unsteady, yes, but--worse--tormented. Tortured. Others can decide for themselves, but to me this quality makes him unfit to be president. If this campaign has demonstrated little else, it has clearly demonstrated that. I suspect that many other voters have reached the same conclusion. 

Wish I could claim credit for this, but I actually saw it over at isgreaterthan.com. In Leviathan, or The Matter, Forme and Power of a Common Wealth Ecclesiasticall and Civil, Thomas Hobbes describes life as nasty, brutish, and short.

The insight: What a great description of John McCain.

Wish I could claim credit for this, but I actually saw it over at isgreaterthan.com. In Leviathan, or The Matter, Forme and Power of a Common Wealth Ecclesiasticall and Civil, Thomas Hobbes describes life as nasty, brutish, and short.

The insight: What a great description of John McCain.

Here's a question: If McCain invokes Ayers at tonight's debate, but still refuses to look Obama in the eye, does it count as saying it to his face?

Except that she's not fat, it's a near-perfect match. It's Delores Umbridge from the Harry Potter book and film. The primped-up neo-fascist, the embodiment of evil at it's most pedestrian.

Anyone else notice this? In the WaPo report about the White House meeting on the bail out, Repub sources said that the intention was just to "touch gloves."

Hey, isn't 'touching gloves' essentially the same thing as a knuckle bump?

Did anyone else notice Obama's response when McCain stumbled when attempting to say 'Ahmedinejad'? No flicker of contempt, or humor--only compassion. He just said, softly, 'that's a tough one.'

Strong and compassionate. I love this guy. He may have an Islamic-sounding name, but he's 's a mensch.

Both candidates did well. But the more important point is this: There has never been a time in American history where an African American stood on a stage in such an important role and conducted himself with such intelligence and dignity. Regardless of the outcome of this election--and I believe he will win--Barack Obama has just made a major step forward for race in America. Millions of Americans with low opinions of blacks have just seen, for the first time in some cases, just how much dignity and substance a black man can have. Let us all be thankful for the extraordinary gift Barack Obama has given our country.

Most of you by now have probably have seen the video of McCain indulging his ethical scruples while giving a speech.

Some have asked if he's moving towards that Joe Klein moment, when, after binging, he purges.

That's the wrong interpretation of that video.

What you're seeing is McCain's self-importance. He is, in his own mind, a tragic figure. He's doing what me must to save America.

Sorry, gotta run, I've got some...purging to do.

Jim

True, she's incompetent, vindictive, inexperienced, extremist, and a scary liar.

But she will go down in history, with her whiny little Minnesota (or whatever it is) accent, as the most annoying vice-presidential candidate ever. And who decided she is pretty? Must be slim pickins up Alaska way for her to place in a beauty pageant. I'd rather sleep with a moose.

...then why do they keep insisting, against ample evidence, that things are pretty good already?