Obama Winning Popular Vote!!
I have been thinking about this whole popular vote argument from the Clinton campaign so I decided to see how they came up with this voodoo math.
According to Real Clear Politics the only measure under which Clinton is ahead in the popular vote is if:
- the caucus states of IA, NV, ME and WA are excluded
- MI and FL are included AS IS
Fine, if that is the way they want to look at it BUT this assumes that Obama received NO votes in Michigan. Now of course, at least some of the 237,762 (source: CNN.com) Uncommitted votes were for Obama. Lets assume that he and Edwards split that vote. If you average all of the percentages for Edwards while he was in the race (Iowa through Florida), he captures 16.6% of the total vote. Translated to the Michigan results, he gets 97,937 of 589,984 leaving Obama with 138,056 or 23.4% of the total popular vote.
Now, what does this mean for the total popular vote? If you use the calculation above (without caucus states but with FL and MI), Obama has 16,684,752 and Clinton has 16,711,719. If you give Obama his 23.4% of MI, his total becomes 16,822,808!
According to Real Clear Politics the only measure under which Clinton is ahead in the popular vote is if:
- the caucus states of IA, NV, ME and WA are excluded
- MI and FL are included AS IS
Fine, if that is the way they want to look at it BUT this assumes that Obama received NO votes in Michigan. Now of course, at least some of the 237,762 (source: CNN.com) Uncommitted votes were for Obama. Lets assume that he and Edwards split that vote. If you average all of the percentages for Edwards while he was in the race (Iowa through Florida), he captures 16.6% of the total vote. Translated to the Michigan results, he gets 97,937 of 589,984 leaving Obama with 138,056 or 23.4% of the total popular vote.
Now, what does this mean for the total popular vote? If you use the calculation above (without caucus states but with FL and MI), Obama has 16,684,752 and Clinton has 16,711,719. If you give Obama his 23.4% of MI, his total becomes 16,822,808!




