Per exit polls, it looks like at least some African-American ticket splitters are part of the cause. And, despite Obama cutting a no on 8 spot, his presence in Yes on 8 ads certainly is a case of petard hoisting, political-style.

Of course, IMO, Gavin Newsom was no help with his "in your face" style.  And the Mormons outspent even (orthodox) Christians in opposition.

Unless late votes in LA make a major swing, this is over. Details and analysis here.

Update, 4:30 a.m. Central time: LA voters have closed the gap somewhat, but most  the county is reported while, besides the OC, the rest of the yes-leaning Southland still has precincts outstanding. Updated details on my blog.

This all said, I doubt the election can be called before 6 a.m. my time, if then.

Eric Kleefeld, with tongue in cheek, suggests the "Stevens effect" to describe Alaskan elections, since it appears we can retire the Bradley effect.

More seriously, given that Prop. 8 was down 17 points in polls early in the campaign, I wonder if we shouldn't talk about an equivalent to the Bradley effect on this issue.