The Next Elections Start Now
Call me crazy but I find myself caught up in election fever. It never really went away despite the fact that I just about keeled over from the effort. In one sense, it will get better when the new Congress gets sworn in. I'm more interested in legislating than I am in elections where the wrong people seem to get elected more often than the right ones.
Even so, I'm thinking a lot about the 2008 elections. During the victory celebration, one of my connected friends and I groused about the fact that Democrats were willing to vote a straight ticket with the exception of supporting two particular Republican incumbents. Since then, I've been thinking more and more about how one goes about defeating popular fake moderates.
When I want to defeat anyone else, I look at their strengths and wonder how they can be countered. These Republican false moderates have the twin organizational advantages of name recognition and superior fundraising. They also have advantages based on Delaware's peculiarities. In the northern part of the state, we get Philadelphia media almost exclusively. In the southern part, we get Baltimore media. Therefore, a Delaware statewide candidate has to waste most of the money he or she spends on TV by reaching more voters unable to vote in the state than those who can.
Obviously, superior fundraising doesn't always lead to victory. After watching dozens of anti-Biden attack ads on Philadelphia TV, I was there to shake Attorney General-elect Beau Biden's hand at the victory celebration. Unfortunately, most candidates trying to gain name recognition don't have a name like Biden. Senators Biden and Carper are legends in this state so they start off with the name recognition in the bag.
It's a lot tougher when you have a name like Dennis Spivack and you're taking on the third legend, Mike Castle. I can't even remember how to pronounce his last name and I voted for him then listened to his concession speech in person. He is brave enough to want to have another go at it and I'm willing to back him. In order for him to have a chance, he needs a couple million people to know how to pronounce his name. In order for him to win, people will have to learn the substantive differences between a Democrat like him and a false moderate Republican like Castle. This is going to take two things. We'd need to generate consensus support behind him or another candidate and then get a lot of early money.
It frustrates me to lack numbers to back my numbers. Obviously, a two term governor like Minner should have a strong constituency if she would choose to take on a superstar like Castle. That's the elephant in the room. For some reason, the superstars I've already mentioned have avoided challenging each other. When Castle left the governor's mansion after his two terms, he traded seats with Carper. Carper moved on to serve his two terms in the mansion and then he made a rare bold move by taking on popular Republican Senator Roth.
Even that struck me as strange. Nearly everyone I spoke with about the 2000 race expected Roth to retire due to declining health. I was worried and waited for a "Clash of the Titans" to develop with Carper and Castle running for the open Senate seat. Instead, Roth tried to hold on and Carper beat him. In 2006, the Republicans ran someone with no name recognition against Carper and he or she got trounced.
Fortunately, I see some hope in this. We Delaware Democrats have been dominating statewide races for a few cycles now. We have a growing cadre of candidates getting ready for the big leagues with a growing cadre of activists backing them. If Castle were to run against Biden or Carper, one thing would be almost certain. We Democrats would pick up the US House seat and Castle would have to run against a popular incumbent. In Delaware politics, it seems that incumbents only lose when they die or look ready to do so.
That brings us back to beating Mike Castle. We need a definite candidate, early money and some luck. Even then, it would be a longshot. Dennis Spivack only has another shot or two at most before he'd be tagged with the William Jennings Bryant/Adlai Stevenson loser label. I'm not willing to put up with four or six more years of Castle just so our growing cadre can take over after gaining seasoning.





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