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Why McCain Can't Make a Comeback


(This post was originally submitted Monday but encountered technical difficulties.)

It's the economy, stupid.  The economic crisis leaves McCain with nothing but bad options.  They are:

Try to distract people by making them scared of Obama as President.  This won't work.  You can't scare people by telling them there might be a bogeyman in their basement when a real bogeyman is tearing up the entire rest of their house.  Worse, if you try to do this, it just makes you look ridiculous and reinforces the image of your being 'out of touch'.  Which is why Obama went up in the polls when McCain did this.

Try to actually deal with the crisis.  McCain tried to do this with his plan to buy up mortgages, but it was both intellectually and politically unsound.  It was intellectually unsound because it didn't address the liquidity crisis, and it was politically unsound because it was essentially a left-wing type of proposal.  Republicans didn't back it because it was against their principles and political self-interest, and Democrats weren't about to embrace anything from McCain.  He has a real problem here.  Democratic-type proposals won't work politically, and Republican-type ones just won't work. 

Actually dealing with the crisis would be his best move but unfortunately for McCain he doesn't have the resources, either political or intellectual, to do it.  The crisis was created by a lack of regulation and McCain and his advisors are people who have always believed that a lack of regulation was good.  Now that their economic belief system has been proven wrong, they have nothing to offer. 

Pretend to deal with the crisis.  Been there, done that, screwed the pooch.  McCain tried this when he suspended his campaign in order to go on a mad cavalry charge to Washington to save the day, canceling the David Letterman show in the process.  Unfortunately what he actually did was hang around NYC to do interviews, which caused Letterman to destroy him, then go to a Washington summit meeting at which he did nothing, after which his party shot down the only plan on offer and caused a market crash.  Brutal.  Let's not do that again.

Deal with a small piece of the crisis and act like you're dealing with the whole thing.  Interestingly, this is something McCain does a lot.  He constantly brings up being right about the surge, even though it also brings up the fact that he was wrong about the whole war.  He talks a lot about having tried to regulate Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but that's just regulating two companies that most people never heard of, ignoring the rest of the economy.  And it's the entire economy that's falling apart.  It's like blaming a tidal wave on the fact that two beach houses weren't strong enough.  Now he's touting a plan to let senior citizens delay mandatory withdrawals from their IRAs.  Decent idea maybe, but it won't stop the financial crisis.  (Related Psychology Fact: When people are administered the Rorschach Inkblot Test, some subjects only focus on small parts of the inkblot and see things there. These people are almost always highly anxious.)

What the McCain campaign has actually done has been to flail about frantically while they try all of these strategies and find that none of them work.  Often the most difficult decisions to make are those that involve choosing the least bad alternative.  People with a high degree of entitlement often respond to situations like that by refusing to believe that all their options are weak and they just have to deal with it.  Instead they insist that some option must be guaranteed to work, and get angry at everyone else when it doesn't.  In this regard the McCain campaign truly is carrying on the Bush legacy, and that's the biggest reason of all why they won't win. 


26 Comments

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I apologize but ... Testing

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OMG! It worked. Now I can make a real comment - good analysis. McCain is so screwed. Rec'd.

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Thanks - BTW, nice username

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Anybody else having trouble saving profile updates? WTF?

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Change your password, even if you use the same one, the act of re-saving it solved many problems for me.

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Counting chickens, eh?

Let's try to wait for the eggs to hatch first.

When he's sworn in as POTUS, then we'll talk. Until then, GET OUT THE VOTE!!!

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Agreed, but I believe I see some beaks poking out of the eggs. I'll be spending the next few weeks helping them break out of the shell.

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I seem to remember several beaks poking out a few years back in 2000, then watching in horror as the first few breaking out of the shells were afflicted with 'Sudden Chicken Death Syndrome' and gobbled up by the fox.

Now, I wait until the chickens are healthy and safely clucking happily in the coop before counting!

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You sound sort of shell-shocked.

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Eggs-actly!

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Only 51% of voters actually came out and voted in 2000. Not many more than that in 2004. Those numbers are right in line with the primary turnout from those years as well. Primary turnout this year was two and three times higher than any other year in history, especially in traditionally red states.

Not saying it is over or that we don't have to push all the way through to the election in order to actually win this thing, but we should all be at least cautiously optimistic that this year will finally be the year we see this country move off in a new direction, with a solid governing majority behind our new president.

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Jason, I'm not very religious but

AMEN!

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Look, I'm as optimistic and bullish about Obama's chances as anybody. I'm just saying that I'll start the celebration once he's actually won. It's the same approach I take with most things in life: until it's said and done, I act like it isn't gonna happen to encourage the hard work necessary to make sure it does.

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Always a good policy, though I go the exact opposite direction - I assume it is already a given and then work like hell to make it happen. Love the username, by the way. Did you read any of the new books by Kevin J. Anderson and Brian Herbert? Awesome prequels.

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The prequels were very well done and IMHO a special treat for fans of the original series. While it was obvious they weren't master storytellers of the same caliber as F. Herbert, they did an excellent job of staying true to the universe he created. For fanatics like myself it was a very welcome surprise since it was so obvious that F. Herbert died before completing the story. All in all, the only work of fiction I can see as a rival is LOTR, though I'm sure that will cause some controversy...

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So your real name wouldn't be 'Chicken Little' would it?

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No, it's more like 'Pragmatic Big' or something. You ever see Pulp Fiction? Remember the scene with the Wolf? Take his advice.

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I believe people are underestimating how much the economy was fuel thrown on Obama's ground game fire. The two together will be unstoppable. 2000 and 2004 were nothing like this election in terms of voter registration/enthusiasm or economic crisis conditions.

You've got to love when Republicans underestimate voters. There are some things that either chap our asses or inspire us enough to vote. Now I think we have both conditions; here's to hoping for the perfect storm.

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Ahhh that was fun. But there is one way John McCain could win.

He could cheat. He could call his GOP buddies in Ohio, Florida, and a couple others, have them `UPDATE vote SET candidate='John McCain' WHERE vote='Barack Obama'`. This scares me more than anything right now.

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LOL and then I botched it.

`UPDATE vote SET candidate='John McCain' WHERE candidate='Barack Obama'`

Much better. Remind me not to write fake political pseudocode before coffee again ;-)

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Excellent post. I particularly agree with you about McCain's plan to buy up mortgages.

It wasn't a great plan, but that's only half of why it tanked. The more important reason is that it doesn't play to Republican prejudices -- so it got hit from both sides (right and left).

McCain's basic problem is that he needs to find the area of overlap between two sets:

1) ideas that would help resolve this crisis
and
2) ideas Republicans like.

And there's really not much overlap, because this isn't a problem that can be solved by turning the free market loose. That's how we got into the problem in the first place!!

This is a microcosm of a broader problem that McCain has had through the whole election cycle -- which is that his own base won't let him do anything semi-intelligent. He can't move to the middle; he can't nominate a qualified VP; he can't propose real solutions for the economic crisis -- because if he tries to do any of those things, the base starts to whine and make threats.

The GOP doesn't need a better candidate. It needs a better base.

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You're exactly right.

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McShame's only chance is to somehow convince Pres. Bush and/or his father to endorse Obama. THAT would show he is not the same as Bush. BRILLIANT!

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"Democratic-type proposals won't work politically, and Republican-type ones just won't work."

This is exactly right. McCain is completely painted into a corner on the economy. He could have avoided this fate, but "fundamentals of the economy are strong" hangs around his neck like an albatross. Now, he can't move in any direction as long as the conversation is about the economy -- and at the moment, the economy has a death-grip on the jugular of voters' attention.

But, wait a second ... you said that McCain CAN'T make a comeback. Yes, he can. He can make a comeback if the conversation does change to something else. The problem is that there is little that McCain can do to change the conversation, so he has to "get lucky." There are a few things that would be "lucky" for McCain in the next three weeks (a very, very long time in politics).

* A new, credible revelation about Obama that imputes his character could change the conversation. This has to be something way more credible that the Bill Ayers brew-ha-ha. Somewhere, somebody could have a piece of audio tape with an 22-year-old Barack Obama saying something really, really stupid...

* A major international incident, like a new war in the Middle East. The war in Iraq is the greatest thing that ever happened to Iran, right? They're hurting because of low oil prices now, right? What if Iran attacked Israel? That would drive oil prices back up and it might assure another four years of the U.S. in Iraq by swinging the election to McCain. If you were the Supreme Ayatollah, wouldn't you do it? Instant change of conversation.

* A new, scary video from Osama bin Laden. This has got to be the thing that keeps the Obama campaign chiefs awake at night. Bin Laden did exactly this in 2004, and it worked. Admittedly, that race was much closer than this one. However, if it came out a week or two before Election Day, it might give McCain enough time to squeeze the juice out of it and turn the numbers around.

I'm not ready to call this one over. Too much can happen in 21 days. The only bright spot is that McCain really can't make it happen for himself, he needs to get "lucky" and he needs help from something like this. But, you know, something always happens in October.

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Agreed. Of course an asteroid can always smash into the earth, but as you say, McCain really can't make it happen on his own, and that's really what I meant.

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If there was ANYTHING ugly out there about Obama, Senator Clinton would have found it. You know the Clintons had the ability to dig long, hard and deep and they found nothing - and no dead bodies.
The meme about McCain is erratic and unsure, Obama is caln and thoughtful. An international event is not going to help McCain. Palin has blown up in the face of the McCain campaign. Picking her showed how impulsive McCain is and then unwilling to deal with bad results.
I know 20 days is a life time. But the John "out of touch with reality" McCain I heard on just now on the radio (saying "I want to do half as good as Sarah did against poor Joe Biden.) has a snowball in hells' chance of winning and he lacks any technical abilty to save the snowball.

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Tom Hollenbach

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  • Location New Jersey
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  • Politics Social liberal and economic and foreign policy centrist

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I am a Clinical Psychologist in private practice. I also am writing a book that explains changes in the value systems of societies over time using insights from evolutionary psychology.

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