I don’t want to go poll by poll. You know where to find them. But we have new and pretty bullish new poll data in the battle for the Senate. (Yes, they’re just polls. They can be wrong and all that.) A bunch of polls have come out in the last 48 hours, including two high quality ones (CNN and NYT/Siena). Both show pretty substantial leads for Democrats in key Senate races.

Here are some general observations.

I jest, a bit, in the title. As I’ve told you several times, friends don’t let friends watch the early vote. But there’s one thing I want to point your attention to. I’ll explain in a moment why this leaves me mainly consistent.

There’s one thing that seems to be showing up fairly consistently across the country and particularly in the Deep South. That is a high proportion of generally younger, non-regular Democratic voters. And they tend to be less white, relative to the rest of the electorate. In a number of Deep South states you’re seeing high turnout for non-regular Democratic voters which in states like Mississippi for instance means mostly Black voters.

Very much a feature of this moment that while Donald Trump is spending resources to upend the constitutional order he’s also expending resources on weird personal fetishes, like in this case a maniacal need to refurb a semi-run-down but comfy and convenient local D.C. golf course.

As we get ready for the final days of the 2026 midterm campaign, I wanted to flag some key parts of our coverage. First, don’t miss our midterms liveblog which you can find on the front page and also at this link. We’re starting with a focus on election interference issues and then we’ll shift toward broader Election Day news and results as we move into next week. Next, the TPM team has done a comprehensive analysis of just who certifies election results in each of the Senate swing states and what funny business they can pull. You can see that here. We also have our take on which 13 races we think will define the midterms, which you can read here. Finally, join us here Tuesday night. For the first time we’re going to be doing live video coverage of election night. Think of it as comparable to what you might see on CNN or MS NOW but with more insight about how to understand the results, what’s happening in key counties and precincts rather than just the toplines and just TPM level analysis. I hope you’ll join us.